December 2000 - January 2001 Stock Picks for the Year 01 and Overview _________________ back to NEWSLETTER |
S.A. Advisory
2274 Arbor Lane #3
Salt Lake
City, Utah 84117
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II. STOCK PICK FOR THE YEAR 01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Allied Oil & Gas - AOG.TO | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
We initially recommended this junior oil and gas micro on or about September 20, 2000, via our phone service and then our e-mail alert. The recommended price was .66 US. Allied Oil & Gas currently trades on the Toronto Exchange under the symbol AOG.TO. The company currently produces oil and gas within Southern and Central Alberta and Western and Southwestern Saskatchewan. AOG.TO, in our opinion, is entering a major growth mode that in turn should dramatically enhance shareholder value. At present 22 million shares are outstanding, fully diluted. According to the November 30, 2000 press release, which reported third quarter numbers, LOOKS TERRIFC! Allied's production increased 89% from 877 Boe/d in the third quarter of 99 to 1658 boe/d for the same period in 2000. Cash flow for the three months ended September 30, 2000 exploded by 310% from the same period in 99. In addition, oil and gas revenue rocketed by 178% and net income screamed by 1000% over the same period last year.
At present only 10% of production is hedged. The current mix is 35% gas and 65% oil. This value, according to management, will switch during 01 to be 75% gas and 25% oil. At the end of the third quarter, operating costs per BOE dropped to $8.27 from a high of $8.69. The current shareholder's equity equals .72. During the third quarter AOG.TO completed the acquisition of Backer Petroleum Corp. and during October 2000, Allied purchase a 50% working interest in 41K gross acres of undeveloped land in the Majestic area of Alberta. According to management, the property has the potential for the drilling of over 400 low risk shallow gas wells and includes an interest in the gathering system, and access to 120 km of 2D and 3D seismic data. During April 2000 AOG.TO purchased 17% of the Cessford property. This property consist of 65 producing wells, 27 recently drilled and 57 sections of undeveloped lands. To date another 141 gas wells have been drilled and completed. The property is currently producing 2000 mcf/d net to Allied. |
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Overview |
Typically, junior oil and gas companies trade between 3 to 6x cash flow (sometimes even 10x). If we value AOG.TO at 4.5x December's 2000 cash flow value of .50, we calculate a share price of $2.25 CD, not the current .85 CD. Based upon cash flow for 01 (remember, these values are based upon $28.50 WTI oil and $4.50 MCF of gas CD) of .80 CD, if AOG.TO were to trade at 4.5x cash flow, then our share price would equal $3.60 CD - over 4x the current price of .85 CD. Based upon PE ratio, AOG.TO looks like a steal. If we assign a meager PE of 15 (note: growth rate is in excess of 200%) and use our estimated 2000 earning of .25 CD, a share price of $3.75 is calculated. Concerning 01 estimated earnings of .45 - if we assign a conservative PE of 15, we calculate a share price of $6.75 CD almost 8 times above the current share price. It should also be noted that AOG.TO is currently trading at book. For an oil and gas company 5 to 10x is reasonable (price to book valuation). Management, in our opinion, is stellar. They are represented by the same management of NCE Petrofund (NCN - Amex). Finally, AOG.TO is short on exposure, but rich with huge upside potential. They have exploding production, cash flow and earnings. The production is located in "safe" Canada, drilled at Canadian costs and sold in US $ - how much better can you get. We assume AOG.TO will eventually be listed within the US. AOG.TO currently files with the Canadian SEC, called SEDAR! We believe that with continued strong oil and gas prices that AOG.TO could appreciate 200 - 300% from current levels. Website: www.alliedoilandgas.com Corporate: 416-364-8788; broker: Greg Nelson at 801-256-2160. |
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