S A ADVISORY October - November 2001
"New Buy Recommendations - Tech Explosion Portfolio"

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S.A. Advisory
2274 Arbor Lane #3
Salt Lake City, Utah 84117

NEW BUY RECOMMENDATIONS
 


We intend to monitor all recommendations for percentage gain performance and will place them within "The Tech Explosion Portfolio"

1. Texas Instruments (NYSE - TXN) - a global semiconductor company and a designer and supplier of digital signal processors and analog integrated circuits, the engines driving the digitization of electronics.

BK - $7.30
CASH - $1.74/sh
DEBT - tiny
52 week range - $20 - $64
Shares outstanding - 1.73 Billion

For the six month Rev - $4.57 billion and net income before account change fell to $33 million.

We believe TXN is oversold and should deliver short and long term appreciation once nerves calm. This stock is extremely oversold and has not been this low since November 1998. Current price - $23.00 - TXN is a 5 Star company selling at 2.5 Stars.

2. Siebel Systems (NASDAQ SEBL) - is a provider of e business applications, enabling organizations to sell to, market to, and service their customers across multiple channels, including the Web, call centers and retail and dealer networks.

BK - $3.53
CASH - $3.25
DEBT - Tiny
52 week range - $12.70 - $119.875
Shares outstanding - 460 million

For six months ended 6-30-01, revenues rose 59% to $1.14 billion and net income totalled $153.5 million.

On September 17, 2001, SEBL announced that it would repurchase up to $500 million of common stock. Revenue growth is anticipated to slow a bit, but profits are still anticipated and at current levels SEBL looks relatively cheap. It is worth building a position in SEBL at current levels and could break a few more dollars, but it primarily looks washed out. We rate SEBL with a long-term BUY and intend to monitor SEBL for percentage gain performance - current price $13.33.

3. Applied Materials (NASDAQ - AMAT) - The world leader in semiconductor wafer fabrication and spare parts for the worldwide semiconductor industry.

BK - $9.55
CASH - $5.74
DEBT - Nil
52 week range - $27.50 - $78.75
Shares outstanding - 816 million

For 39 weeks ending 7-29-01 revenue fell 10% to $5.97 billion and net income/share fell to $813 million. On September 20, 2001 AMAT reduced work force by 2000.

Earning estimate for October 2001 year end equals $1.06 and .75 for 2002. 

For a diverse tech portfolio, this stock is a must own. We would scale into this security, for it may continue to slide a few additional dollars. Long term, it is a winner and will only get stronger. We initially recommended AMAT on 10-28-00 at $48.00 and placed a sell recommendation on AMAT on 4-29-01 at $57.05. It looks much more attractive at current levels than when we first visited with AMAT. At current levels we see limited downside risk, but attractive upside potential long-term - recommended price $29.09.

4. Boeing (NYSE - BA) - an aerospace company, operates, together with its subsidiaries, in three principal segments: commercial airlines operations, military aircraft and missiles, and space and communications.

BK - $13.48
CASH - $1.76/sh
DEBT/EQUITY - .92
52 week range - $27 - $70.93
Shares outstanding - 806 million
Revenue for 6 months ended 6-30-01 - increased 16% to $28.81 billion, while net income before accounting change totaled $2.08 billion.

Because of the recent event, BA has gotten crushed due to commercial airline exposure. BA may or even intends to lay off 30K workers because of the anticipated slow down in demand for commercial aircraft.

The commercial environment looks sick, but the military/defense sub has huge potential if it lands the contract to build a "new" strike fighter - decision scheduled for later this fall. It appears the defense/space subs will likely account for 75% of 2003 profits. BA has not been this low since mid to late 1998. It is obvious that 01 guidance of 3.68 and 3.64 for 02 will be sharply reduced, but the stock already mirrors worst case scenario.

We believe BA is another great core holdings for long-term oriented investors. We rate BA with a solid BUY recommendation at current levels; that is, $30.00. We intend to monitor BA for percentage gain performance.

5. Home Depot (NYSE - HD) - is the premier home improvement retailer - owns and operates 1103 do-it-yourself warehouse retail stores.

BK - $7.13
CASH - .55/sh ($1.3 billion)
DEBT - almost zero
52 week range - $30.30 - $56.8125
Shares outstanding - 2.34 billion

For six months ended 7-29-01, revenue rose 13% to $26.8 billion and net income rose 6% to $1.56 billion. We have not seen HD at current levels since 1998. At present HD is trading at the lower end of its usual PE multiple. We would start to build a position in this leader. We believe that short and long term appreciation can be attained if purchased at current as well as lower prices. We rate HD with a BUY rating and view HD as a core holding - recommended price $33.10.

For Broker contact for all listed recommendations, call Greg Nelson at 1-801-256-2160.

PS: other long-term BUYs, INTC $19.30, FLEX $13.98, CYMI $17.20. 

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