NEW
BUY RECOMMENDATION WEB PRESS CORPORATION Current
Price $1.18 (NASDAQ BB - WEBP)
The Company was incorporated in November 1969.
Initially, the Company was involved primarily in the rebuilding and
repair of web-fed printing presses and related equipment. Shortly
after incorporation, the Company undertook the development of a line
of printing press equipment of its own design.
While the manufacture of new equipment is now the Company's primary
business, it continues to deal in rebuilt and used equipment as an
adjunct to its new press sales. The Company also sells parts and
service for its new equipment. The sale of new and used presses
accounted for approximately 83% and 2%, respectively, of the Company's
revenues in 1997. The Company's presses are primarily designed to
print on absorbent paper such as newsprint. Products produced by the
presses are newspapers (both broadsheet and tabloid sizes), shoppers,
advertising inserts, and paperback books.
Web Press Corporation manufactures two basic products, the Web
Leader and the Atlas. The Atlas is made in six different models. The
principal difference between the Web Leader and the Atlas is that the
Atlas is fifty percent faster. Each press is composed of standard
modules to unwind, print, cutoff and fold the roll of paper into a
finished product. Each is arranged to meet the particular printer's
requirements for the number of pages, color, and size of his products.
Following are descriptions of these modules:
PERFECTOR. Web's perfector is a rotary offset perfecting printing
press unit, consisting of two printing couples running "back-to-back".
Each perfector will print four broadsheet-size newspaper pages, in one
color, on each revolution of the printing couples. Perfectors can be
configured to print up to four colors. They can print up to 32
broadsheet-size pages.
QUADRA-COLOR UNIT. Web's Quadra-Color unit consists of four printing
stations mounted around a common impression cylinder. This unit prints
four colors on two broadsheet-size pages at a time. It offers better
control over color register and thus is capable of greater accuracy in
color printing than conventional, unit-to-unit methods for color
printing. It is used in conjunction with the Company's other products
to provide close register, four-color capability in the printing
system.
FOLDER. Web's folder is used in conjunction with perfecting and
Quadra-Color units to fold the printed paper into a finished product.
The folder cuts the paper off in every plate cylinder revolution and
folds it in standard broadsheet-size newspapers, tabloid-size papers,
and shopping-flyer or magazine-size products. The Company also
produces two folder styles which have the capability of making a
second parallel fold to produce "digest"-size signatures
which are used in printing some books and pamphlets.
TWO-POSITION ROLL ROLLSTANDS. Web's rollstand supports two, 42 inch
diameter rolls of 36-inch wide paper and is used in conjunction with
the perfector and Quadra-Color units. The rollstand controls the
unwinding of the paper roll and feeds it to the printing units under
controlled tension.
Web Press Corporation markets its products through Company employed
representatives in the United States and Canada. Foreign sales are
made through independent organizations in Latin America, Asia, Europe,
and the Middle East.
The Company's presses are sold in a highly competitive world market.
Competition is based on a combination of price, service, quality, and
the versatility of the equipment. Web's presses are priced
competitively with similar products. The Company believes that
features incorporated in its presses, as well as the Company's
policies of supporting its customers, will allow it to continue to be
very competitive. Web Press Corporation is the only manufacturer in
the United States producing a Quadra-Color unit for its market.
CORPORATE INFORMATION:
- Shares outstanding: 3,436,513 issued
- Earning/share for 1997 & 1996 calculated upon: 3,105,413
- Employees: 50
- Company does not believe year 2000 will present the Company with
any significant problem.
- Export sales for 1997: 56.7%
- Litigation: none
- As of March 1998: 548 shareholders
- Quick corporate overview:
Web Press operates in a segment of the graphic arts industry.
Its primary business is the manufacture and sale of rotary offset,
web-fed printing presses. These products are designed for the use
in printing newspapers, shoppers, advertising inserts, paperback
books and similar products. The market is dominated by four
domestic manufacturers. Sales in the industry are sensitive to
advertising expenditures, long-term interest rates and newsprint
shortages. The product is labor intensive; materials shortages are
rare; and technical obsolescence has not been a significant
factor.
- For 1998 economists are forecasting real domestic economic growth
to be 2% to 2.4%. The Newspaper Association of America projects
newspaper advertising to grow 6.7% in 1998.
The Company believes that continue~ strong advertising growth,
well above the overall growth rate for the general economy, will
help domestic sales of presses in 1998.
- The economic problems in Asia resulted in postponement of several
orders in 1997. It is highly unlikely that the Asian market will
improve in 1998. The local economies of Western European countries
are strong, Eastern European countries continue to grow economically
and most economies in Central and South America have improved, too.
The Company has prospects in all of these areas. Export sales should
account for over 50 percent of the Company's business again in 1998.
- In June 1998, the Company will show for the first time a new 4+4
perfecting unit at the NEXPOr98 trade show in Orlando, Florida. The
new module, called a "QUAD-STACK," will be sold as part of
the Atlas product line. It has several unique features-most notable
being its inimitable compact size for a 4+4 perfecting unit. The
compact size will allow pressmen to operate the press from a ground
floor platform. Initially, two models of the QUADSTACK will be
available.
- Net working capital was $3,285,000 and the current ratio was 2:1
on 12-31-97.
- During February, 1998 credit line increased to $1.2 million.
- All directors and officers as a group control 2,175,000 shares.
- Free trading shares: 1 million
- Treasury stock: 331,100
- Book value as of December 31, 1997: 87ó
- Growth rate: 1996 - 1997A: 48% 1997 - 1998E: 30%
- Management takes small salaries, but earns additional based upon
performance.
Fundamental Analysis
It is easier to value stocks that have visibility, following and
those that are listed on either the NYSE, AMEX or NASDAQ. Most
opportunities that fall into the above category are considered within
the radar of neophyte as well as the professional money manager or the
"like".
S.A. Advisory spends 50% of our research time looking for
opportunities that fall below the radar screen and 90% of all investor
types.
We would be lying if we considered that the overall market is
relatively cheap because in our opinion it is not! In our opinion, the
only segment of the market that is extremely cheap is the low priced
NASDAQ BB listings.
In our opinion, WEBP falls into that category.
We will first examine PE ration for 1997A and 1998E. The parameters
that we will use for PE valuations will be a very conservative value
of 10, the current S & P valuation of 25 and 1/2 the actual growth
rate (1997) and estimated growth rate for 1998.
During 1997 WEBP earned .11/share - if we assign the value
parameters listed above, then our share price could be $1.10, $2.75
and (1997 growth rate over 1996 was 48% - so half of this value equals
24%) $2.64. If we use the same parameters using management's
conservative earnings estimates (for 1998), then our share valuation
should approach $1.50, $3.75 and (growth rate for 1998 revenues are
estimated at 30% - we will use a 15 for our calculation) $2.25.
Food for thought: Upon reviewing the recent Forbes Magazine (dated
April 20, 1998), it came to our attention that most companies in the
group are trading at 50% over the projected growth rate. If we were to
assume this mouth-watering scenario, then based upon our earnings
estimates for 1998 and anticipated growth rate of 30%, our share (note
50% above 30% growth rate yields a PE valuation of 45, with earnings
of 15ó) price would migrate towards $6.75. If we used the PEG
investment tool, that is, PE/G (PE ratio/growth rate) our high stock
valuation would be verified. Assume that based upon our estimated
earnings of .15 for 1998 and the growth rate of 30% and a current
share price of $1.18, our calculation yields us a PE of 7.8 and if we
divide the growth rate into that number, we get a PEG valuation of .26
(a PEG with a value of 1 is considered cheap and undervalued). In
order to achieve a value of 1 our share price would be 4x the current
level or $4.72 based upon 1998 estimates. A far cry from current
levels.
Our next investment tool that will be applied to WEBP is PSR (Price
to Sales). A value of 1 is considered cheap and undervalued. According
to our calculations, 1997A yields a PSR of .37, while 1998E yields a
PSR of .28. If we only achieved a value of 1, then WEBP would trade at
$3.15 based upon 1997A numbers and a value of $4.15 based upon 1998E
numbers. Again, a far cry from its current valuation.
Another investment tool that must be applied to WEBP is, of course,
cash flow (net income and D&A). We will apply a very conservative
value of 10x and an average of the Forbes 500, that is 17x. Upon
applying these parameters to our estimated 1998 cash flow value/share,
we calculate a conservative value of $2.20 and using the Forbes 500 as
a comparable tool, our share value based upon 17x yields a share
estimate of $3.74.
Our last ingredient of fundamental analysis will, of course, be book
value or shareholders' equity. At the end of 1997, WEBP has a stated
book value of .87 and an estimated 1998 value of $1.02. In our
opinion, this ingredient is not as important as PE, P/CF and PSR
because true book today can be very deceiving, which, of course,
results from changing accounting regulations. We will apply a price to
book of 3 to 4x in order to fully value WEBP. Based upon our valuation
of this scenario, WEBP would trade at $3.06 to $4.08, based upon our
evaluation.
QUICK OVERVIEW
- Totally obscure and under the radar screen.
- Fully reporting - very important.
- Very attractive fundamentals, i.e.: PE, PSR, P/CF, PEG and P/B.
Extremely bullish.
- Experienced management taking small salaries.
- New products being introduced during June trade show.
- Attractive growth (30%) and earnings (36%) rates for 1998.
- Only 3 million shares outstanding. Allows for big earnings
surprises.
- Management controls 66% of the Company
- 50% sales from Europe and balance in the U.S.
- For 1998 economists are forecasting domestic growth at 2.4%. The
Newspaper Association of America projects newspaper advertising to
grow by 6.7% for 1998 - very bullish for WEBP.
- IN OUR OPINION, THE NASDAQ BB IS THE ONLY FERTILE INVESTMENT
SEGMENT OF THE MARKET THAT IS STILL FUNDAMENTALLY SUPER CHEAP.
Corporate Telephone Number: 253-395-3343.
Note: We intend to monitor WEBP in our e-mail master and Summer 97
portfolio for percentage gain performance. |