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January-February 1999 STOCK PICKS _________________ back to NEWSLETTER |
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January-February 1999 STOCK PICKS _________________ back to NEWSLETTER |
| STOCK PICKS FOR 1999 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1)Financial Performance Corp (FPCX) 2)Cable Link, Inc. (CBLK) __________––> Overview __________––> Overview2 |
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| STOCK PICKS FOR 1999
Every year we pick a few opportunities that we believe could and should
outperform many of our other investments that are presented during the year. In
our opinion, FPCX and CBLK offer investors excellent upside potential with
limited downside risk-mainly because of severely discounted fundamentals of the
companies listed. Not only are these opportunities discounted based upon
today's numbers, but also based upon future projections. 1) Financial Performance Corp (FPCX) Current price $1.25 The company's principal business is merger communications and marketing services to financial institutions. MKP's primary business is bank merger communications, which accounts for approximately 100% of revenues. The principals of MKP have managed over 50 merger communications and other projects for banks, including Bank of Boston/Bay Bank, The Bank of New York, Citibank, First Union National Bank, First National Bank of Maryland, Nat. New Bank, Fleet Bank, The Dime Savings Bank of New York, Great Western, First Fidelity, CIT Group, PNC and Chemical Bank
CASH as of Sept 30th 98: $3,456,266 or around .35/sh Long term debt: 0 NOL: over $1 million as of Sept 30th, 98 Working Capital: $3,700,000 as Sept 30th, 98 FPCX: FULLY REPORTING WITH SEC Robert Trump owns 4.9 million shares( brother of Donald Trump) Public float is around 1.8 million Remaining shares held by management and close ties. AS OF NOVEMBER 9, 98-9.4 MILLION SHARES OUTSTANDING- FULLY DILUTED Back to top | Back to Newsletter If the Harvard Business School needed a "perfect company" regardless of size to review for investment quality, it is our opinion FPCX would be hard to beat! The company has no debt, has a huge cash horde, revenues are exploding (for the 3 months ending Sept 98 revenue soared 268%- for the 9-months revenue rose by 153%), earnings are rocketing (for the nine months ending Sept. 98, income/sh reached .238 versus a loss of .07), has a huge NOL, which will help shield taxes, strong management team, great cash flow and working capital, leader within unique niche and best of all, FPCX is extremely cheap based upon STRONG FUNDAMENTALS!! Based upon recent management conversation concerning the future revenue and earnings growth, management has no problem with the numbers for the year ending December 31, 98, that is, $23,000,000.00 and income/sh of .32! As Mr. Finley (President) stated within our Sept/Oct newsletter, "the revenue and earnings trend line is anticipated to be a mirror image of the first six months on 98 continuing through 99". IT SURE LOOKS LIKE MANAGEMENT IS RIGHT ON TARGET! Based upon 98 estimates for revenue and earnings, our current share price of $1.25 indicates a severely undervalued and under-followed investment opportunity. As present FPCX is currently trading at a PE of 3.9X, 3x book, .51 PSR and 3.5x cash!! If one considers that FPCX is growing by triple digits and earnings are just as mind-blowing-that higher fundamental variables should be assigned!! Even if we assign a conservative PE of 15X (COMPANY IS ANTICIPATING TO GROW BY 80% NEXT YEAR AND EARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DOUBLE) and based upon our earnings for 98 our share price would equal $4.80-a 352% gain over current levels. Next year numbers are even more attractive-earnings for 99, according to management should reach .64/sh with the same PE valuation of 15X-our share price zooms to $9.60/sh!!!! If FPCX was to trade at lx sales-which of course is extremely low, then our share price based upon 98 numbers equals $2.50 and for 99 equals $4.00!! Concerning NASDAQ, the company hopes to get listed within a reasonable time period. Management is considering a secondary at the $4.00 level. The company is also acquisition oriented. In our opinion, based upon what we have and what is anticipated, FPCX is worth at least $3-$5 near term and $6-$9 within 12 months if revenue and earning projections are met!! In our opinion FPCX will get noticed sooner than later and will appreciate dramatically from current severely undervalued levels. It should be considered as a core holdings within any portfolio of undervalued micro-mini caps. For more information call the company, Mr. Finley at 1-212-557-0401. For a qualified broker, Mike Chesler at 1-800-331-1355. This investment opportunity has been rated a strong Buy! We first recommended FPCX on or about August 20, 98 at .81/sh. We have not received any form of compensation for our opinioned recommendation. We currently hold a position in FPCX and may buy, sell or hold according to our investment objectives! We are currently monitoring a position in a specified portfolio for percentage gain performance. Back to top | Back to Newsletter 2. Cable Link, Inc. (CBLK) Current Price $2.25 An Internet Play that already has great Revenue and Earnings Cable Link, Inc. (CBLK) has two divisions: 1. Sells new and refurbished cable TV equipment in addition to repairing equipment for cable companies within the US and various international markets. 2. Auro Computer Systems is a full service computer technology services and integration provider, partnering with such names as Inacom (ICO), Compaq (CPQ), IBM (IBM), Cisco (CSCO), Toshiba and others to provide services in the areas of procurement through installation, consultation to network design, help desk services to staff augmentation nationwide. Auro is a one-stop resource for information technology needs. Select Financial Information: Shares outstanding - 1.9 million fully diluted Management controls-900K (which includes 400k share option) Free trading -around 1,000,000 SEC-fully reporting Book value as of Sept 30, 98-$1.31 Revolving Bank credit line-$3,100,000 Employees-140 Year end-Dec Shareholders of report-400 3 for 2 1/31/97 & 10% 8/11/97-stock dividend
 CONSIDER A
PRESS RELEASE THAT WAS RELEASED ON OR ABOUT JAN, 99 |
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| OVERVIEW |
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For the year ending Dec. 31, 98 management is aware of our fourth quarter numbers, which yields a TOTAL revenue for 98 of $21 million and net of around .33/sh fully diluted and fully taxed, while 97 year-end numbers equalled $10 million and .45 fully diluted and NOT fully taxed! It is quite evident that taxes makes a huge difference!! When we look at the estimated value for revenue and earnings for 99, we can see that management is confident that revenue will expand by 50% over 98 and that earnings will also increase by over 50%! Now that we have variables to work with, we can develop a meaningful model for an estimated share valuation for 98 and 99-NOT including any revenue or income from an internet connection! If we look at revenue during 97 10 million), 98 (21 million) that's a 100% growth rate from 98 to 99, which is estimated to reach $32 million, that's a 50% revenue growth! Growth has been exceptional, as well as explosive!! We intend to value CBLK with a conservative PE of 18x!! Many would value CBLK with a value of 25x to 40x PE, but we like to be conservative in our calculations! If we use 18x for the PE for 98 and 99 our estimated share price would equal $5.94 for the year 98 just ending and $9.00 for 99! This, of course, indicates an extremely undervalued situation, when you consider the fact that CBLK is currently trading at $2.25/sh. At present CBLK is trading at 6.8x est. 98 and 4.5x est. 99! If we look at PSR (price to sales) and value CBLK with a PSR of .75, which again is very conservative then a share price of $8.25 for year ending 98 and $13 for year ending 99! As you see, these values are dramatically different from the current share valuation! At present, CBLK is trading at a PSR of .20! At present CBLK is only trading at 2x book. It could trade at 4x-6x easily and not indicate full valuation. If you really get overly excited, one could use the PEG valuation, that is PE/growth rate! A value of 1 is considered undervalued. This means that CBLK could trade at $15. We, of course, do not use this variable, but realize that it is used in today's market mania! Back to top | Back to Newsletter Concerning the INTERNET!We believe that it is only a matter of time before CBLK develops an E-commerce site, which will compliment the already corporate site: It is in our opinion, that it is a natural progression for CBLK to sell customized PC and PC networks via the Internet for consumers and larger corporations (NOTE: They sell products to WCOM and HBAN -just to name a few key customers). We also believe that new and used cable equipment and the potential for cable modem sales is a logical progression for CBLK and the Internet! (On the Cable-side CBLK buys and sells to both TCI and Time-Warner). CBLK in our opinion is very different from most Internet related issues! The difference is, of course, CBLK does not depend on the Internet for its existence, but may grow dramatically once a plan is announced and executed! CBLK makes real money and does not value itself on eyeballs surfing the "net". |
| OVERVIEW #2 |
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We have a company that intends to get listed on NASDAQ and is actively seeking additional acquisitions. We also have a company that does business with major US companies within the computer and cable industries. Finally, we have a situation that is a perfect E-commerce candidate, which could dramatically increase sales and earnings! In our opinion, CBLK belongs in all mini-micro cap portfolios geared towards short and long term capital gains. The Internet is a "new" and powerful dimension in commerce and we believe that CBLK has the perfect ingredients for becoming a player in this "new" business arena! Corporate number#: 614-221-3131, 1-800-399-1371 Broker #:1-800-331-1355, Mike Chesler Note: We first recommended CBLK on or about 2/28/96 @ $2.08. Note: We have not been paid for this recommendation! We currently own a position in CBLK and may buy, sell or hold. We have the right to trade our own account. We will monitor a "NEW" position of CBLK in latest portfolio for percentage gain performance! Our phone service investors were informed to purchase CBLK @ $2.00 on Dec 31, 98! On December 22, 1998, we placed the largest SELL RECOMMENDATION on selected securities in the history of S.A. ADVISORY (1983). We believe many segments of the market are extremely frothy and find it necessary to either limit specific losses or secure huge gains. Of course, the most overvalued segment based upon strict fundamentals are select Internet issues. We have a hard time valuing companies based upon "clicks" or "bloodshot" EYEBALLS! When this bubble bursts, the monetary pain will be historic. Note: We never anticipate to pick the top of either the market or stocks, but instead look to grow our principle with levels of risks that are calculated. We rather hit base "hits" than just wait for "Home Runs"! We, of course, have our share of "10" baggers, but have never based our investment strategy on such dream type investing! |
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