July -
August 1999 NEW BUY RECOMMENDATION _________________ back to NEWSLETTER |
S.A. Advisory
2274 Arbor Lane #3
Salt Lake City, Utah 84117
In our opinion, (Box A) the quickest as well as easiest way to analyze EEGL is to look at the PE estimates for fiscal 2000 without and 2000 with an acquisition. Revenue growth will balloon by 80% with an acquisition or 29% without. Earnings/share growth will surge by 50% over 1999E with an acquisition of 20% without. Before we assign a PE valuation for EEGL, we should first review the nine month numbers, that is, EEGL has already earned .36/share from generated revenues of 114 million, with managements guidance fiscal 99, which has already ended, should look like 155 million in sales and .50/share based upon fully diluted shares outstanding of 8.4 million. We believe that without comparing EEGL to any peer companies that are in similar business models and formulating a conservative PE valuation that fairly represents EEGL without hyping or misleading potential investors, that a PE valuation of 18 fairly represents what EEGL should trade at. Using this number and applying our earnings/share estimates, EEGL could trade at $9, $10.8 and $13.50, respectively, when we look at fiscal 1999, 2000 and 2000+. A far cry from EEGLs current $4.50 share price. |
Upon review of Box B, it is easy to conclude that the group of stocks mentioned indicate an industrial segment that is underowned and that the groups PE multiple has lagged the overall market. (GWW is more fairly valued - offers greater liquidity, which many institutions favor in this current market environment). In our opinion, EEGL, WLMR and BNTT all look attractive at current levels, but EEGL and BNTT are standouts! We believe that EEGL really offers the greatest potential because the corporate strategy is one of rapid growth via acquisition. If we take in account EEGLs revenue and earnings estimate for 2000E, including planned acquisitions, which ramps the revenue up to $280 million and the earnings up to .75, it most certainly offers the greatest upside potential. It is in our opinion that a $10.00 share price will result if corporate goals are met. The overall fundamental picture offers investors relative safety; that is, EEGL has around $1.00/share in cash, book value of $1.75, has an estimated PSR of .25 for fiscal 99 ending June 30th and below .20 for estimated fiscal 2000. The EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) for the past 9 months based upon the fully diluted shares outstanding of 8.4 is also very attractive, that is, .71/share. The company has a large debt load, which is a negative, but the huge cash flow has and will accommodate it with little problem. The debt was acquired via a recent acquisition. In our opinion, a market that has many segments that are still trading at extremes; EEGL offers above average return during the next 12 months with little downside risk. When you consider the strength in housing starts, repair due to weather and, of course, maintenance to existing homes, the future for EEGL looks very promising. The roofing and masonry supply distribution businesses are a $25 billion plus industry, highly fragmented, with great opportunities for consolidation. EEGL has recently proven that it can raise money and successfully acquire companies that fit within its corporate strategy. At current levels we rate EEGL with a BUY recommendation for less risk oriented investors looking for solid returns during the next 12 months. We intend to monitor EEGL in our current portfolio for percentage gain performance. Broker contact: Karl Birkenfeld at 1-888-454-1998 Note: We were hired as a consultant by the company during April/May, 1999 only. Our consulting fee equalled $6,500. |
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