On December 28, 1998, we formed a small group of internet issues that in our
opinion were perfect candidates for disaster. The bubble will burst. Within our
July/August Newsletter we added Capital Kirks favorite stock; that is,
PRICELINE.COM - Websters definition of Junk surely defines
our opinion of PCLN. This month we are adding a new candidate:
NET2PHONE (NTOP). Here is why:
NET2PHONE, INC. - low cost telephone calls over the Internet using personal
computers or traditional telephones. At present 47.5 million shares outstanding
- market cap a staggering $3.86 billion - for the 9 months ending June 30,
revenue equalled a tiny $22 million with the usual losses/share of .09 (based
upon 30 million shares). The research on the street is calling for
expanding losses of .72 for 00.
It does not take an idiot to realize that domestic long-distance has dropped
dramatically with respect to per/minutes rates during the past few months!
NET2PHONE actually concentrates on International calling (65%). Well, guess
what - those rates have come down even more rapidly; i.e., Kangaroo Land via
MCI Worldcom around 6 months ago ($1/minute) now offers a plan @ .25/minute and
.09/minute on Sundays.
The point: lots and lots of competition, heavy discounting on all fronts.
International calling was the gravy now it appears to be the after dinner
antacid!
We assume that NTOP will be a leader within the teleco industry sub group,
but will never in a million years retain such a lofty valuation (book around
$2). This stock is actually worth a 1/5 mile cab fare ($2). We intend to add
this hokus pokus Internet telephone entity to our ever expanding list of
Internet bubble stocks for percentage gain performance on the short side! Note:
if you really had to own NTOP, the real way to play this stock is to buy IDTC
(parent company which still owns around 3/4 shares of NTOP for every IDTC
share. At least IDTC is a real company. The street only values NTOP shares at
around $15 that IDTC holds. When NTOP was $20, IDTC was $14. Now NTOP is $81
and IDTC $27.
Just goes to show you, most Internet investors only savor the pie-in-the-sky
investment theme - the word discounted value - that chapter has not been read
yet!
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