Urals Energy ltd. uen.l/ureyf.pk plans on releasing well result between Nov 15th & Nov 20th 2010
AWRCF.OB - PLANS ON RELEASING 3RD Q RESULT MIDWEEK AND PLANS ON DOG AND PONY SHOW TOWARDS THE END OF WEEK~ EARNING ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE EXCEPTIONAL!
Nov 14, 2010
Recommendations made or mentioned during the past 6 months ( some stocks have been recommended prior to May 2010).
* Please review past email alert for specific stock selections mentioned.
symbol--initial price---current price-
bexp ------$3.25-------$24.36 --buy and remains a strong favorite and core holdings in the Bakken
axas------$.96---------$4.17---buy- you have to own it~ another core holdings~ player in the Bakken, Niobrara, Eagleford and other regions
kog------$1.28----$4.25-buy~ great Bakkken play that most likely will be bought out sooner than later
ssn----$.59 ------$1.21--Hold/buy on weakness-lots of cash on hand~ now they need to execute and produce some oil!
cmt.to---.75-----.45--buy for the long term- gas will eventually firm and cmt.to will fly- extremely undervalued and out of favor. New management doing a great job and we like cmt.to
aez----$6.44---$7.53 -being bought out by HESS- we sold when announcement hit the tape~ Turned out to be a little early
sdcjf.pk--.17-----.59 --strong buy and remains one of favorite junior domestic oils. This junior oil has legs! Their 114 well jv drill program for 2011 and their exposure to the Bakken and Niobrara + other properties leads us to place sdcjf.pk (sea- Australian symbol) at the top of our domestic buy list.
awrcf.ob---$1.15----$7.00- remain a strong buy~ no oil stock, but our only Asian stock play! Still remains the cheapest stock in our Portfolio- Earnings are due out mid-week and dog and pony show mid-week. Their 51% sub just reported stellar rev and earnings and sent Charoong Thai wire to an all time high! This bodes well for awrcf.ob's earning picture for the 3rd Q of 2010. Anticipate Amex listing soon. Personally, believe awrcf.ob will report .40 for the 3rd!~Another core holdings
wres-----$3.33--- $4.04 ---buy-- another domestic oil- most activity in California
dej------$.30-------$.35- recently recommended via sept 7th email alert and most recent news still results in strong buy rating on dej. From current news we anticipate that this stock will waken from its slumber during first 1st Q of 2011 because of "waterflood" integration within their current wells that will enhance production dramatically. DEJ has lots of upside potential from various projects.
etkef.pk----.15------.16--- remains a buy recommendation~ see sept 7th email alert and read the current news ( www.asx.com.au and use the symbol ete)~ again another sleeper that will perform much better during early 2011.
cgc---$3.62----$4.44--- one of 2 gold stocks that we currently hold ( auy- is also held) - CGC had a buyout offer that was refused- the gold stocks have not all performed as well as the metal. We rate CGC with hold and buy on weakness if looking for a quality gold producer.
aljj.pk---.29-----.31 micro-steel producer- One of these days aljj.pk will most likely get bought out because of "tight-ship" operations and huge NOL. Should own some!
intt-----$1.18-----$2.44-- sold 1/2 @ $4.50-- some weakness in the tech sector- earnings have been very strong~ management appears cautious heading into 2011---Hold--
rodm---$2.05-----$2.80--funding leader for "pipe" raises. We have a big question mark concerning rodm~ we assume 3rd Q will be nothing special, but 4th will be very good as typical and so will the 1st of 2011~buy on weakness and sell on strength~ Hard to stay with it when we have domestic oils feeding us lobster and Cristal!
WE HAVE DECIDED TO DROP COVERAGE OF THE FOLLOWING INVESTMENTS:
URALS ENERGY~ UEN.L/UREYF.PK~.25
Urals Energy is a Russian based junior E & P company that has production from 2 specific areas~ Articneft and Petrosakh. As of mid Sept 2010 production was running at 2,320 b/d. The firming production trend in 2010 reflects intensified well refurbishment activity. One of three sidetrack drilled wells has been completed and results are due out during the week of Nov 15th. The 2 remaining wells @ Petrosakh will be spud during the 4th q of 2010. It is anticipated that these sidetracks will yield around 200 b/d/well. During 2011 3 developmental wells are planned on the Articneft acreage. Management believes by the end of 2010 production will reach 2,550 b/d. During 2011 production of 3000 b/d appears plausible and 3500 b/d for 2012, allowing for new development wells in the Petrosakh. During May 2010 UEN.L filed an application with the Russian authorities for the exploration of 2 prospects located close to their existing Articneft operations. The exploration licenses have resources of a substantial 230 mm barrels based on the Russian C3+D1+D2 classifications. The schedule for a response is unknown. The company is also participating in the auction of the development license for the state owned Tarkskoye field located on the Kolguev Island during the 4th Q of 2010. The resource base is about 70 mm barrels using the C1+C2 classifications.
According to Degolyer & MacNaughton UEN.L has significant 2P reserves of 58 mm barrels. There is no shortage of development opportunities on the existing properties. At present there are around 188 million shares outstanding . The balance sheet leverage has been sharply lowered following the restructuring program during 2009 and early 2010. By the end of 2010 debt will reduced to $23 million. A VERY IMPORTANT ELEMENT THAT SHOULD NOT BE OVERLOOKED IS THE FACT THAT URALS VALUATION BASIS OF $.60/BARREL OF 2P RESERVES CONSTITUTES A HUGE DISCOUNT TO THE BENCHMARK FOR RUSSIAN E & P PLAYS OF $2 TO $3.00/BOE!
Based upon the current price of .25 US and the shares outstanding a resulting market cap of $47 million. The Petrosakh property is 97% owned and the oil produced is of high quality with an API of 34* and a low sulfur content of .28%.
Urals has some significant operational strengths in a Russian context:
1. high quality light oil selling for a premium
3.An extensive production, processing and storage infrastructure that is capable of being leveraged with higher output.
4. Integrated refinery operations with the ability to supply high-grade products.
Urals shipments are highly seasonal and very much oriented to the second half of the year because of pack ice.
During 2010 gross rev anticipated to reach $58 million and 2011 gross rev will equal $68 million ~ both years are anticipated to show profits.
At year end ue.l anticipates $14 million in cash on hand-- $20 million at the end of 2011. The estimated equity at the end of 2010 is $73 million vs $82 million at the end of 2011.
This is not for everyone! Foreign investments offer investors an additional layer of risks and laws. Information is not always timely~ foreign governments handle & tax oil & gas companies very differently than in the USA. Regardless of the countless unknowns and confusions, we believe that a meaningful investment in Urals Energy offer investors a ground floor opportunity in a company that has had a very troubled past and now appears to be emerging stronger and smarter and is very cheap based upon its peers.
As mentioned earlier, during the week of Nov 15th management intends to issued a press release stating a flow announcement concerning a recent "sidetrack" that has just been completed. With ramping production during the next 2-3 years it is hard to fathom that UEN.l/UREYF.PK will sit at current price levels. It is also very possible that Urals will be bought out because of the huge reserve potential that is not being valued properly. Urals has rev, small pre-tax income, great property, shrinking debt, valuable assets , focused and pro-active management and huge growth potential with the kicker of being bought out 4 to 5 time the current price.
I know that I have said this before! The real risk is not owning this obscure junior micro-cap oil company because the sky has no limits!
MESSAGE BOARD- www.iii.co.uk
***************************************************** *****Oil brief recommendations*******
We have also been building a position in GMXR and SD~2 more domestic oil and gas companies that have had issues and appear very under owned and undervalued! Both are trading near their 52 week lows and a fraction of the 52 week highs during the the summer of 2008 when oil peaked at $145.00/barrel.
Yellowcake is trading at around $58.50/lb- we have not seen this kind of firming since 2008! My favorite and actually only Uranium play is DNN~ current price around $2.66~has production, huge growth potential, tiny debt and lots of cash! Uranium is a great fuel source~ too bad the dems & liberals have a problem with it like everything else in our lives! DNN is a favorite and if you want exposure to the Uranium game this is my #1 pick!
One more oil that belongs in a diverse oil portfolio--QEP
************QEP Resources ---QEP- $32.96***
An oil and gas E & P with acreage in WY, UT, COL, ND, OK, TX and LA~ recently spun-off from Questar. As of Dec 2009, QEP has working interest in 610 producing wells in LA, 427 in Pinedale Anticline, 2334 gross producing wells in the Uinta Basin of Eastern Utah and 26 producing Bakken wells in ND.
Earning est. for 2010~ $1.39 and $1.46 for 2011. There is currently limited coverage on QEP, which we view as very Bullish! Barclays Capital had some "balls" and initiated a strong buy rating on July 29, 2010.
QEP has a BK of around $17.00 and total debt of $1.3 billion. Recently, QEP upped their guidance for the balance of 2010. QEP has hedged about 67% of forecast NG and Oil equivalent production for the remainder of 2010.
Read Oct 25, 2010 3rd Q corporate release for additional information and review the just released Corporate presentation dated Nov 11, 2010 on the company website.
Some of the meat and potatoes of QEP!
QEP has 49K net acres in the core of the Haynesville and very actively drilling with 7 rigs operating in the Play. In the Pinedale, cmpy has completed 91 wells todate in 2010 with 5 company operated rigs working in the Play. QEP has 35K net acres in the Anadarko Basin, 27K of which are in the Texas Panhandle- QEP has interest in 16 producers and 2 drilling rigs by the end of 2010 in place in the Play.
In the Bakken- operates 9 producing wells in the Play and has working interest in 51 producing. Net production is 3100 boepd and has 1 rig operating with a second to drilling by the end of 2010. Currently has interest in 9 outside operated wells and 7 being drilled and 4 outside operated waiting on completion.
Bottom-line: We like QEP and own it! With some firming of NG QEP will become a gusher for the patient investor type. They have their fingers in all the action and their stock has not really performed that well because of the recent spin-off. The parent was a utility of sorts and spun-off shares could not be held by certain funds & that has caused pressure on the shares. We believe that this has created a buying opportunity! We rate QEP with a strong buy rating at current levels for superior upside potential during the 12-24 months.
Top 4 stocks that must be owned!
4. ureyf.pk - new pick!
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