S.A. Advisory E-Mail Update
Febuary 3 , 1997
Dear E-mail Subscribers: http://www.saadvisory.com
NEW BUY RECOMMENDATION!!!!!!!!
We recommended Cymer, Inc. ( nasdaq-cymi ) on January 31, 1998 @ $16.56/share.
See Feb 2, 1998 posting of E-mail for actual recommendation!
The company is the leading provider of illumination sources for deep
photolithography systems. The company is a pioneer in the
development of excimer lasers, the enabling tehcnology for fabricating the
next several generations of leading-edge semiconductors. Cymer lasers are
used by the
industry's leading stepper and scanner manufacturers as well as
the world's top semiconductor manufurers.
WHY WE LIKE IT !!!!!!!!!!!THE POSITIVES
- Revenues for 1997 ending Dec --------------------1996
$ 203,647,000 $64,995,000
diluted .86 .29
- 52-week stock range $14.375------$49.25
- shares outstanding 30 million.
- Book value as of January 30,1998-----$4.15--price to book-3.99
- Price to sale--2.4
- Price to Earnings =-trailing 12-months---19.2X
- cash -$132 million and $42 million (long term investment)==$174,000,000.00
- On or about January 29,1998--CYMI announced $50 million share repurchase
- 1997 net income up 300% on 213% revenue rise!!!!!
- IPO-September 19,1996--3.4 million shares @$9.50,Secondary December 12,96
2 million shares @ $42.00--during 1997 a $175 million debenture sold
and convert @ $43 or so!
- Product revenues for 1997 reflected the sales of 460 lasers, compared to
145 in 1996.During the fourth quarter, this number totaled 133 laser
systems, 131 of which were for use in semiconductor photolithography
applications. Gross margins on product sales reached 40%.
- At year-end backlog was $108,704,000.00
- Management controls 14%,large short position, recently upgraded by
two brokerage firms(Morgan Stanley--bullish firm with clout).
- Company believes that it controls 90% of it's market. --- According to
Independent market analyst, the DUV lithography market is currently
projected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate of 28% through the
- According to industry analysts, the worldwide market for semiconductors
was $138 billion in 1996. Key to this growth is Moore's Law, named for
Dr. Moore, chairman emeritus and founder of Intel.. In 1965, Moore
wrote, "the average power and complexity of the silicon chip will double
every 18 months with proportionate decreases in cost". As this trend
continues, enabling technologies such as deep ultraviolet lithography
will be critical to the industry's ongoing success.
- New products to be released during 1998 that management believes will
raise the competitive bar more in a single step than ever before in the
history of CYMI.
- Deep-UV is ranked as one of the fastest-growing sectors in the global
- Large exposure to Japan.
- Some exposure to Asia.
- Management announced that the first quarter of 1998 will see a 10-15%
decrease in sales.
- Large amount of R and D expenses coming during the first quarter.
- Most brokerage firms lower earnings est. for 1998 form $1 plus to
around .45---I believe that this will change very soon and be upgraded
to around .65-.70 for 1998 and over $1 for 1999.
- The shorts have been hammering this issue to death!!This is going to
change real soon!
ALL the negatives offer us a prime BUYING opportunity!
We love this issue!!We usually stick with value investing and tend to avoid
growth! CYMI in our opinion is an exception!! Long term --We believe that
this issue has the potential to reach a share price of $50 within a few
stocks in our opinion became over sold dramatically
during the past 2-months of Asian Flu--CYMI in our opinion is a great
example of throwing the baby out with the bathe water!! We look for much
higher prices near-term!!( $21 should be easy). All the negatives in our
opinion are all temporary--offering us a window of opportunity!!
When we release our next newsletter via "hardcopy" we intend to expand our
review of this situation.
Finally, The greatest risk in CYMI in our opinion is not owning some!
We intend to monitor this situation in our model portfolio for % gain perfor-
Corporate phone# 619-451-7149
Yours Truly William Velmer--801-272-4761
16. Possible takeover candidate -
17. During 1996, the company increased its clean room manufacturing space
to approximately 11,000 square feet, added twelve new test bays and more
than tripled the size of its manufacturing staff.
Hotline--1-888-711-7338( $2.00/minute) open account 1-614-439-7375($10