The Barnes S project is using $45 Oil and $2.75 Natgas with huge returns estimated
We believe that Natgas will have a run during late January into Feb 2015. If this turns out to be a true this investment vehicle could return attractive returns short term.
Stock pick~ SLCA - a proxy for crude
Other opportunities that may interest WRES, UGAZ,
Special opportunity for investor's to celebrate our 31 years in business.
Some or even most will think that we are crazy that we continue to stay with the Oil & Gas Industrial segment. Maybe we are or maybe we see something else down the not so distant road.. It use to be "peak" oil and now we have "cheap" oil forever. They call it a new paradigm.
On Jan 2, 2015 Reuters ran a story on Oil & said, "we could see $20.00/barrel" ! If Oil prices go to $20/barrel there will be no oil because nobody can produce it worldwide at that level. That would be roughly .50/barrel using 1970's pricing ( inflation value)! The only other way we would see $20/barrel if most of the world was nuked, asteroids crashed, Ebola eats 4 billion people or this idiot of a writer does not have the slightest clue! You decide! Happy New Year to all!
As mentioned within the Dec 2, 2014 email alert: We mentioned as well as suggested that investor take a look at the Empire Drilling program offered by Energy Equities. In one short month the project is almost sold out and we were surprised that how many smart investor's are really out there that see the reality of this low price oil mirage .
The project that we are introducing is a Direct Ownership opportunity. It is not a limited-partnership!
The Barnes S- This the latest project that is being offered to www.saadvisory.com investors at a very attractive price point. The economics have come down dramatically during the past 2 months and all aspects of drilling has deflated rapidly because of the decline in Oil prices & to lessening degree in Natgas.
The Barnes S is considered a "sidetrack" whereby the initial well was drilling to TD of 14.5k feet but miss the target during 2009. This drilling program will target the 2 sands above TD (12.5k feet) which via seismic indicates 2 very porous 50 ft sections with pressures of 8000 PSI. The Cannon #1 is a close by producing "monster" well that during its first year of production yielded 3.6 billion cubic feet of gas and 175k barrels of oil ending Dec 2013. This well will continue to pay investors huge returns over the life of the well (10+ years).
Drilling and Developing the 2 sands ("G") will be accomplished by using a technique known as Managed Pressure Drilling, which has recently been developed and will be employed in the drilling of this low risk well.
It is in our opinion, and from outside consultation that the Barnes S could very well be even a stronger well & with the costs slashed as much as they have the returns could be exceptional over the short & long term.
Again, we mention that the big win comes from buying low and selling higher vs buying high and hoping to sell higher.
At the currently depressed prices for fossil fuel and using their calculations based upon $45 crude and $2.75 Natgas the returns are exceptional . There are 2 scenarios that we are using in order to demonstrate return yields based upon current pricing of said commodity.
At 500 mcf of gas and 240 barrels the pay out is roughly 5 to 1 and results in a 12-13 month pay out.
At the high end of the spectrum using 10,000 mcf of gas and 450 barrels of condensate the pay out is roughly 12 to 1 and this scenario results in a 6-7 month pay out.
It is easy to see the painted picture being displayed by the endless talking heads that spew, gush and spout the doom and gloom for the Oil and Gas Industry.
In reality, it is like the snake on the trail that bites the ankle of the dazed & tired hiker.The unknown then becomes the known and then everything changes. The geo-political risks in the world have never been greater, the demand for crude from China and Europe could increase in a flash and projects being mothballed could take years to re-activate and suddenly out of the blue like the slithering snake you get bit with much higher prices without warning.
As mentioned within the Dec 12, 2014 email alert, "the oil crash of today can turn into the oil spike of tomorrow"!
We personally have purchased 1% of this project because of the low risk, rock-bottom pricing, huge return potential and very attractive tax advantage ( write-off of 60+% of the investment).
For more information please contact Chauncey 713 530 0480 and ask for a complete PDF or mailed documentation on the Barnes S
*********** The pilot fish of the fracking revolution ****
US Silica Holdings (SLCA- $25.05)
52 week range $22.71 -$73.43
short position - 17% bullish scenario
SLCA is a leading producer of industrial minerals, including sand proppants, whole grain silica, ground silica, fine ground silica, Calcined Kaolin and Aplite clay.
The wide variety of industries and applications served by US Silica includes oil and gas, glass, chemicals, foundry, building products, fillers and extenders recreation, industrial filtration and treatment and testing and analysis.
Go and read the Dec 10th 2014 Wells Fargo Energy Conference. presentation. This presentation is an excellent overview of SLCA
SLCA ranks in the top 3 sand providers in the world. The company has over 17 operating facilities. At present the total reserves equal over 366 million tons.
Growth rate -- doubling company size every 2-3 years.
Forbes America's Best Small Company- ranking #1
During 2013 $350 million rev from Oil and Gas Proppants. During 2013 $200 million rev from Industrial and Specialty. The segment margin goes from 42% to 29%.
Management believes that regardless of the potential slow down in wells drilled during 2015 that the sand usage will increase because the trend is to 3-4X the sand that was used during 2013 fracking.
The WSJ dated Jan 2, 2015 CEO, Bryan Shinn, stated the above fact. According to him it provides a backstop and that job cuts are not in the cards and that the company might be looking into adding jobs as opportunities arise.
Mr. Shinn also goes on to say that 70% of the sales are under contract and locked in at very attractive margins.
On or about Dec 30, 2014 the CEO, COO & a Director all bought sizable free trading shares from the open market.
On Dec 22, 2014 Management also increased the buy-back of shares from $25 million to $50 million over the next 12 months.
According to the President, " We remain focused on using our strong balance sheet and cash flow to continue investing in organic growth initiatives and other high- return business development activities that create value for our shareholders".
Please note: The average income/sh estimate has been slashed to the current $2.98 from $3.68 just 90 days ago.
The slaughtered share price is very similar to the rest of the Oil and Gas Industrial segment.. Over done in our opinion!
The near term target still ranges in the $40's+ price appreciation during the next 12 months.
On Dec 8th BNP Paribas upsized their senior secured term loan from $375 million to $500 million.
According to President, " enhances our already strong balance sheet and provides us with additional flexibility to facilitate our disciplined approach to capital allocation, which includes organic growth opportunities, funding acquisitions and returning cash to shareholders regardless of decline in crude production-- sand growth/well is increasing dramatically because it has been found that the more sand used the better the results."
Revenue is expected to grow from $870 million (2014) to over $1 billion during 2015.
At present, 1 well needs 100 railcars or 430 trucks of sand. Each well uses around 10 tons of sand.
The company has 13 new products and currently has 37 products in the pipeline.
Raw sand is being used instead of resin coated sand and ceramics because it cost less.
According to management, " Even with a decrease in well counts by 10-15%, demand for sand is expected to be up for 2015!
Only 20-25% are using this high density proppant drilling technique. This means that there is still a huge amount of room for growth in demand. Also consider that raw sand usage is increasing while ceramic sand usage is decreasing.
If you consider that SLCA has already reached level 9 of Hell there is know where else to go except back to Heaven. SLCA is trading at 8X 2015 numbers, there is a share-buyback in place, management has been buying shares on the open market, 70% of 2015 sales are under contract, even with a reduction of wells anticipated for 2015 sand usage/well is increasing dramatically, the overall bearish sentiment is 110%, the chart looks like death (level 9 of Hell), increase of credit line by major banking institution and the talking heads are as bearish as a bears can be. All these factor lead us to believe that SLCA belongs in your portfolio today for short and long term appreciation potential because of doomsday scenario that has been stamped on this company's sandbox. We rate SLCA with a strong buy recommendation @ current levels and believe that within 12 months that the stock could double from current levels. Investor's should scale into this issue because of the high beta and the fact that we have never picked bottoms.
The shifting sands of life never have been controlled and when you think that you have a handle on the situation the wind shifts
The Birthday gift to all investors that enjoy www.saadvisory.com
A little history about www.saadvisory.com
The editor of S A Advisory was self taught in the biz of financial writing & stock selection. It all started at a very young age when a relative gave me 3 shares of Federal National Mortgage @ $15/sh ( the same Federal National Mortgage as today- back in 1966). Once that happened my life changed forever & the love of investing and reading about companies evolved into an affair that has never waned. Every company has it's own story and life history & it has always been a thrill to learn about everything and anything that enhanced my thinking capability and decision making approach towards stock selection and recommendations that this letter has formulated from 1984.
The college degree was in Biology from Rutgers' University was never put to use because another true love of mine was SNOW SKIING!
Totally addicted and actually this year I will reach 50,000,000 vertical feet of skiing in my life!
The addiction was fed by selling Ice-cream on LBI NJ for 14 years whereby funds gathered from the sale of cones, bomb pops and cherry bombs allowed me to develop my love for skiing and for stock investing
Finally, S A Advisory -- It actually stands for Snakes Alive Advisory- During 1976 there was a drought in Utah and at Snowbird there was even less slippery stuff so there were lots of snow snakes ( things that would trip you up and make you fall.) The name was actually used for the my Ice-cream truck -- Snakes Alive Ice-cream - we also of course sold our own brand of Iced Tea called Snakes Alive Iced Tea, Haagen Snakes dixie cups and sure we also sold rubber snakes!
We gave up that business in 1984 when we started S. A. Advisory Newsletter and of course went on the net in 1995. If you ski the turning resembles snakes that slither around and when you visit my site that is another reason for the snakes that hang out on the homepage!
To celebrate our 31 years we are offering investor's the opportunity to receive 1 personal phone service recommendation from yours truly when the next recommendation is found. We will actually call you! The total fee is $50.00
Send check to S A Advisory, 4700 S Holladay Blvd, SLC, Utah 84117 any question call 949 922 9986
Please make sure you include a phone number because i cannot call you if you do not include a current number.
*********6 stocks mentioned Dec 12, 2014********
sdcjf*************.35**********.39******buy on dips because the Australian dollar is very weak**********
mauxf**********.42***********.52******buy on dips because the Canadian loonie is not very strong against the US$
Fresh news that could firm Oil prices during the next few days. ( WTI around $51)
Truly believe all of OPEC cannot take the pain!
Libya's oil production has now dropped to around 300k barrels/day from a recent high of 1 million barrels at the end of October 2014. On January 3, 2015 the Iranian Nuke talks are already stalling. These two factors should firm oil prices-less glut and more geo-political tension.
King Abdullah (90) of Saudi Arabia has pneumonia (if he dies will there be levels of uncertainty). Chinese data leaves oil market bruised. Iran says Saudi Arabia should move to curb oil price fall ( natives getting anxious). Falling oil prices tough challenge for West African Rules. The World continues to spin out of control!
Warren Resources WRES $1.52 Strong Buy
Warren Resources WRES
52 week range $1.20- $7.02
212 697 9660
Short position around 11%-- fuel for the bulls
Oil and Gas E & P-- primarily will concentrate on developing their newly purchased Marcellus acreage in Penn
Their Oil acreage and production growth will slow until crude prices improve and will strictly concentrate on their "cherry" acreage in the Marcellus.
Like the rest of the herd - the slaughter house has not been kind to WRES either.
Estimates for 2015-- rev will grow from $157 million to over $214 million according to the brokerage community the earnings/share will drop dramatically from .59 to .01! Only time will tell if the "boys" with the crystal balls have an edge!
Regardless of the Wall Street Suits, Management has been extremely active buying huge chunks of paper during the month of Dec 2014.
Review their excellent Dec 2014 presentation which can be found on their website.
Read the press during Aug 2014 to Dec 10th 2014- The acquisition of Marcellus acreage turns WRES into a low cost producer of Natgas. The company believes that their brake even price point is $2.17/thousand cubic feet of gas.
During August 2014 WRES completes Marcellus acquisition, Dec 2, 2014 borrowing bases is increased, Dec 10th we get guidance for 2015- 7 wells to be drilled and 8 completed in the Marcellus. The company has a valuable hedges in place for 2015.
Total Oil Equivalent for 2015-- 6900-7167 Mboe
Total Gas Equivalent for 2015- 41k-43k MMcfe
Management has a strong record of reducing expenses by improving efficiency, grow production while lowing costs.
Management intends to hedge 50% of their production.
WRES is a very well run company that has Oil production and Gas production in CA, WY and PENN. At present the company has chosen to concentrate on the Natgas side of their asset base.
We like WRES at current levels and believe that short term gains and long term appreciation can be had for the patient investor type. We rate WRES with Strong Buy rating @ current levels.
We have not been paid by any of the listed investments within this email alert. We may buy, sell and or hold at our own discretion.
Subscription info: 1 yr hard copy $250.00 6-10 issues
1 yr personal phone conversation and recommendations with editor as many times as you wish $3500.
1 yr phone recommendations- we call you before the herd is notified via the email alerts $1500.00
Send checks: S A Advisory, 4700S Holladay Blvd, SLC, Utah 84117
If you have questions call 949 922 9986
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Velocity Share 3Xlong Natural Gas ETN- UGAZ
Current price $4.43 52-week range $ 3.89-42.73
This investment seeks to replicate 3x the performance of the S & P GSCI Natural Gas Index ER
The index comprises futures contracts on a single commodity.
Bottom-line: Natgas makes a run this "etn" runs hard if gas falls this vehicle falls. It is in our opinion, that the downside is very limited. The upside on gas maybe $4.50- downside $2.75. We are not much off the lows and it is still going to get cold and maybe if we are lucky we will have many Artic Vortex visitors during the next few months.