OUR OIL & GAS PORTFOLIO CONTINUES TO OFFER INVESTORS ATTRACTIVE APPRECIATION POTENTIAL LONG TERM AND SWING TRADING OPPORTUNITIES.
OUR STOCK PICK OF THE YEAR APWC CONTINUES TO GET CHEAPER AND CHEAPER AND MAY BE THE CHEAPEST STOCK THAT WE HAVE EVER OWNED!
THE MARKET HAS FOR A NUMBER OF MONTHS BEEN TRAPPED IN A TRADING RANGE BECAUSE OF ENDLESS DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL PROBLEMS!
Just think if we only had half the problems that confront the USA & World how high the US markets might be?
1. Tsunami- Japan, 2. Greek default drama, 3. possible Spain & Italy default, 4. Libya- the undeclared War, 5. Middle East turmoil, 6. Iran's Nuclear ambition and our toothless response, 7. USA's Main St. stealth recession, 8. A weak and Anti- American President, 9. Possible default of US debt if debt limit is not raised by August 2, 2011, 10. Economic growth in China, 11. An administration that wants to raise taxes when @ War with business!
There are most likely additional problems, but for the time being we all should be happy that Wall St. continues to buck the trend!
Corporate America is lean and mean! Productivity gains keeps the "ranks" tight and efficient. Borrowing costs are low and balance sheets are very healthy. Many corporations have been chased from our shores because of over regulation, taxation & wages as they cannot compete with Mexico, China & India. Even Comrade Obama got into the act and gave Brazil $2 billion in order to develop their Oil and Gas offshore!
American business is on strike against this administration because of the added uncertainty of Obamacare and the Tax Code!
We continue to concentrate our investment dollar in the Oil and Gas patch mostly in the USA , some in Canada and have also diversified into Russia in a small way and a recent and very successful investment within the country of Thailand.
As mentioned in prior email alerts~ investing in Oil & Gas covers all the bases in our opinion: economic growth, political risk scenario, organic growth and "big fish eats little fish". Any hint of growth either domestically or internationally spike Oil~ any disruption of supply spike Oil~ lack of any meaningful Energy policy in the USA keeps Oil firm~ a weak dollar helps propel our asset value in the ground and in the storage tank~ Expanding reserves and "new" extraction techniques spike the E&P sector and continued cannibalization usually spikes target as well as peers! All-in-all ~~ the oil stocks are the only place for us!
As you know we favor a non-oil Asian company that we believe is the cheapest stock in our Master Portfolio~ Asia Pacific Wire and Cable ~ nasdaq symbol APWC~ current price around $4.90~ remains our NON-OIL STOCK PICK for 2011!
Please review recent email alerts for complete story on APWC~ recent news ~ 1st Q ending March 31st 2011- rev 121 million vs 104 million and net income/sh .20 vs .27 ( lower # due to higher tax rate and G&A). For the year ending dec 31st 2011 rev came in @ $465 million and net income/sh of $1.02- APWC will be appearing @ major financial conference july 17th-July 19th 2011, which should generate interest considering trailing PE is 4.9X, book value around $16 dollars and cash/sh is around $6.50- with a PSR of .16. As mentioned in prior alerts~ APWC is not a China based company or a reverse merger and has a top 5 auditor, namely, Ernst and Young. This stock has not performed as we had anticipated to date, but if you are a discounted value investor APWC cannot be avoided!
APWC- rated strong buy with a target of $10-$15.00 ( only 13.8 million shares outstanding)
******* Oil Stock Portfolio*****
spe.to **5.95**bought out 6.25
skw.v**.70 **** .48*** strong BUY
ssn****.59*****sold 1/2 @ 3.83***2.82***Hold
sd*****5.23***sold 1/2 @ 11.27**10.28**Buy/ Hold**
aez**6.44** bought out 14% profit
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**PETROBAKKEN ENERGY LTD.*** PBKEF.PK
PBKEF.PK is an Oil & Gas exploration & production company combining light oil Bakken & Cardium resource plays with conventional light oil assets.
The company claims it leads the industry in operating netbacks, strong cash flows and production growth. The company is applying leading edge technology to a multi-year inventory of Bakken & Cardium light oil development locations, along with a significant inventory of opportunities in the Horn River & Montney gas resource plays in NE BC. The company's strategy is to deliver accretive production & reserves growth along with an attractive dividend yield!
215 million fully diluted shares outstanding
PBG.TO owns 59%, management controls 3% and the balance is owned by investors,funds and institutions.
Annual dividend C$.96~ has declared since Oct 2009 @ the rate of C$.08/month-- recent conversation with management yields us to believe that there is very little chance of discontinuing the distribution monthly!
It is very important that investors visit their site-www.petrobakken.com and review the excellent presentations from June 14th 2011 and July 6th 2011. It will make you a believer.
Rev est. for 2011~ C$1.12 billion and C$1.08 net income/sh and rev est. for 2012 ~ C$1.23 billion and C$1.23 net income/sh. Note: there are 19 brokerage firms that follow and the above estimates are averages.
Management anticipates between all properties that there will be between 12-14 rigs operating during 2011.
At present there are 100 wells shut in because of weather related issues which will affect Q2 numbers~ Management has informed us that by the end of Q3 most if not all of these wells will be producing.
At the end of 2010 production reached 41,562 boepd~ the production drop during the 2nd Q dramatically because of weather issues and the share price has reflected the production slow down. Management still anticipates that the exit rate for 2011 will be in the range of 46,000-49,000 beopd!
PBKEF.PK has over 1.1 million acres of undeveloped land and over 2150 low risk drilling location~ 800 net Bakken light oil locations, 650 net Cardium and 300 net conventional Saskatchewan light oil and 400 net NE BC gas locations.
2011 CAPEX of C$900 million & 206 net wells are planned - During 1st Q 78 net wells were drilled. This was made up of 38 net Cardium, 33 net bakken, 5 net conventional & 2 net NE BC~ the success rate was 99%.
Estimated 1.8 billion barrels DRIIP (discovered petro initially-in-place)~ only a small amount of that number is booked as 2P
171 million barrels~ 2P
NPV of 2P~ C$4.1 billion
During 2010 rev reached C$1 billion and net income/sh was C$.26 and funds flow from operations came in @ C$3.27~ company has been growing via acquisition- visit website www.petrobakken.com and review history and operations.
The Cardium prospect: has 240 net sections in the prime region of the play. Production increased from 0-7335 boepd during 2010 and is anticipated to reach 13-16k boepd as an exit rate for 2011.
Book value @ the end of 2010 was C$16.00
According to management, no equity funding is anticipated during 2011 and current line of credit is sufficient.
Petrobakken~ company has developed the "Bilateral horizontal well technology"- Cost of C$2.6 million/bilateral vs C$4 million for 2 single laterals to access the same reserves.
Alberta Resource play~ evaluate the Nordegg,Montney,Duvernay and Swan Hills formation.
Please keep in mind that this is a very brief overview of a company that is generating over 1 Billion in sales/yr. We have only touched upon some of the major points that we believe indicate an attractive investment opportunity in the Oil & Gas industrial segment within the country of Canada.
We of course see where this stock was trading during October 2009 (C$35.20) & where it currently trades ( pbkef.pk- C$13.10)~a whopping 63% depreciation in share price~ you could call it a slaughter!
We pride ourselves as being a discounted value,distressed security & contrarian investor type ( been in the business for 27 years)~ pbkef.pk or pbn.to in our opinion falls into this group of unloved and even hated investment opportunity. In our opinion, the real risk in pbkef.pk at this point in the game is not owning it at current levels! Every perceived negative is baked into it's shares and the downside risk is tiny compared to the upside potential. We of course LOVE the Oils! The company has a huge low risk portfolio of drill sites and huge reserve with even a larger potential reserve potential. The oil is in the ground and it is not going anywhere and it does not appear that there are lease expiry issues. The dividend policy is very attractive and management stresses that any kind of reduction does not seem to be in the cards. The main reason that this stock has been devastated recently is because of the WEATHER~ very severe winter and extreme wet Spring has hampered the production of some 100 shut in wells. Management has already stated that much of this logjam will be cleared up as the weather improves. Management's exit rate for 2011 is still 46,000-49,000 beopd- that is a huge increase from the exit rate of 41,000 boepd at the end of 2010. The investment community estimates C$1.08 net income/sh for 2011 with rev of over C$1.1 billion~ not too shabby for a C$13.00 stock with a stated book of C$16.00 and an estimated PE of 13X. Please keep in mind that while we wait we get a juicy C$.08/month or C$.96/year in dividends (7%). We all know that the 2nd Q is going to be ugly, but it is already baked, shaked and raked into the share price. Management continues to pound on the table that they can achieve an exit rates of 46,000-49,000 boepd for 2011~Weather has been a major factor in the decrease in production and will be a major factor in the dramatic increase in production during the second half of 2011. In final note, it is very refreshing when management is available to the public~ most companies list a company contact and that is where it stops~ we have been very impressed that this management team not only has conversation, but also returns calls within 24hr. This how smart companies capture new shareholders and potentially keep existing ones.
Final note: We like this Canadian Oil & Gas company and believe that it is extremely oversold and offer investors an attractive yield with huge upside potential if you can just have a little patience. We rate Petrobakken Energy Ltd. with a STRONG BUY!
1.GTI- recommended during 2009 @$6.21 & then again @ $12.59 - currently trading @ $21.26-- we are selling 1/2 position.
2.TSO- recommended during late 2008 @ $8.89- we are selling 1/2 position @ $23.57
3.AKS- we like this steel- estimates continue to rise and the stock has been running in place- see little downside @ the $15.71 level
4. ZOOM- Not really jumping up and down for pure play China Companies, but I like ZOOM @ $2.63-- current presentation indicates rev of $330 million and around .95 net income/sh based upon some 17 million outstanding-NOT all of China based companies have bad financial reports- I believe that ZOOM can ZOOM- strong speculative buy at current levels. PE est for 2011 ~2.6X
5. MHR-another oil that has very impressive management and going with the jockey usually play off! The company is a player in all right areas~Marcellus Shale, Eagle Ford Shale and Williston Basin/Bakken Shale. The daily production is in excess of 6000 boepd. The total Proved Reserves is 30 million boe. The company has identified over 600 unconventional drilling locations. MHR estimates that it will exit with a 10,000 boepd. Go to www.magnumhunterresources.com and review the June 2011 presentation and review the July 17-19th presentation being released @ the Global Hunter Conference in SF. Worth owning a small piece this pie!
********TOP 9 STOCKS TO OWN****
1. apwc ( non-oil)
2.bexp ( oil)
We have not been paid by any of the listed investments within this alert. We may buy, sell and or hold at our discretion.
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