We are nervous about everything, but will continue to nibble @ the huge drop in many of our "pet" investments and continue to look and add new ones!
Three new recommendations: Energold Drilling (eg,d.v,egdff.pk), Westfire Energy(wfe.to, wfref.pk) and Whitecap Resources (wcp.to,spgyf.pk)
BLOOD AND GUTS ARE POURING ONTO THE STREETS OF WALL STREET AND IT MAY GET WORSE BEFORE IT GETS BETTER! I WILL CONTINUE TO NIBBLE AWAY AT CHEAP STOCKS THAT WE ALREADY OWN THAT HAVE BEEN RAVAGED BECAUSE EVERYONE AND EVERYTHING IS AFRAID OF THE UNKNOWN OUTCOME OF GREECE AND THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE "PIGS".
Oil prices have been hit very hard~ down some $15.00/barrel (WTI). This has taken its toll on almost all Oil stocks in the Universe whether Domestic or International . It is funny how all the political idiots, pundits, News spoke-mouths and "greenies" all blame the Oil companies with the manipulation of prices in order to make more money when prices are high, but when they come crashing down ~ we assume that the Oil companies want to make less money!
If we had more refineries, more pipelines, more drilling and less of the foolish regulations that inhibit the Oil and Gas Industry~ prices would be less volatile.
Maybe in a few months if we are still around the "dumb" cell phone crazed Americans will decide that a "new" direction for this country is the only way to survive and actually prosper! If we are tortured with another 4 years of the current program of white vs black, rich vs poor, business vs government and even male vs female then the party will truly be over!
America can become great again, but we must change course~ we need less regulation, low taxes on business and become energy independent (NG reserves largest in the World). We must reduce our $16 trillion in debt. GO TO ( this is quite the show) www.usdebtclock.org We must cut back dramatically on the social programs, government waste, foreign aid and shut the border between the USA and Mexico. We can make the needed changes, but we must hire some new leaders that can make us the envy of the world as it used to be!
Finally, We must deal with Iran firmly- for the past 10 years we have talked and then talked some more and got nothing! We talked and talked some more with North Korea and look what we got! There will be pain, but if we wait the pain will be 100 times worse!
BECOME A PARTNER IN THIS OIL WELL BEING UPGRADED IN TEXAS!
You may review our last e-mail alert for preview information about this project that we are participating in and that S A Advisory investors are invited to buy1% WI or more ( only 10% left). An estimated investment of $4500.00/1% WI is anticipated to yield $600-$700/month~ with payout as little as 7 months. We have purchased 2% of the "Texaco". As mentioned this well is being upgraded & production will begin within a few weeks. The EUR is 114k barrels of light oil ( $10 addition value/barrel) and .9 BCF of NG. We are told that production should be around 40 bopd.
For additional information call Mr. C. Buck @ 1-800 811 2694 and mention www.saadvisory.com
New Recommendation Stock Briefs!
Whitecap Resources (wcp.to or spgyf.pk)
The company engages in the exploration and development and production of O & G properties in Western Canada. This company recently acquired Midway (mel.to) one of our past recommendations.
52 wk range $4.82-$10.77
Current US price $7.00
First Q of 2012 rev reached $56 million and income/sh equaled .09 based upon 89 million fully diluted shares and production of around 9.8k boepd. The operating Netback $43.50 and they completed 20 wells (16.2 net). WCP.TO completed the acquisition of Midway and now there are 134 million fully diluted shares going forward. The company affirms CAPEX for 2012 to be $260-$265 million and anticipates 2012 exit rate of 18-19k boepd. Their credit facility has been increased to $400 million and production is around 70% oil and NGL.
Review the May 7th Presentation on their website: www.wcap.ca
The company has focus on Light Oil, high netback, shallow decline rate, predictable production profile and a large oil drilling inventory. Their current P + P equals 71 mmboe!
Total undrilled inventory (well) equals 1446 and De-risked oil development equals 878
Estimated cash flow for 2012 equals $1.81 and year end net debt around $328 million.
The total number of wells to be drilled during 2012 will equal 120.
14 brokerage firms have an average 12 month target of $13.57 a far cry from the currently depressed $7.00 share price.
Bottom-line wcp.to looks and feels very cheap. If we value their P + P (70.7 mmboe) @ $20/boe we calculate a $1.4 Billion valuation and this does not even take into account production or P3 and the current market cap is only 134 million shares X $7.00 or $938 million. We believe that investors should start to nibble at this heavily discounted asset. If you think that oil heads to $80/barrel then wcp.to goes lower, but if it stays around here and even rises or the markets calm down then we head higher. You are never going to pick the top or the bottom and if you stay out of the market you will always miss everything and just dream!
We rate wcp.to or spgyf.pk with a strong buy rating at current levels.
Westfire Energy WFE.TO or WFREF.PK~ $4.53
Oil and Gas driller with a dominant land position in Canada's "Viking" Play.
Westfire has developed an inventory of low risk drilling locations in four core areas: Redwater, Provost & Kaybob, Alberta & WC Saskatchewan.
Viking development locations- 1028 risked
52 wk range $3.51-$8.15
Management has stated that the company is for sale at the right price!
Dec 2011 NAV was stated @ $8.71
P+ P reserves equals 43.3 mmboe
First Q of 2012 wfe.to drilled 57 wells (51.3 net) and exceeded 11k boepd with 100% success rate.
70% oil and ngl~
During Q1 rev reached $53.5 million,cf of .35/sh & net income/sh of .01
Estimated CF for 2012 ~$1.50 Review the April 16, 2012 presentation for further insight.
Management sees no foreseeable dilution, has strong balance sheet, fully diluted with only 88 million shares, has $148 million bank debt and total line of $200 million & anticipates that debt will be reduced to only $125 million by year end & plans on drilling 110 well during 2012 ( crude quality 39* & operating netback equals $42.50) and will execute a $155 capex program for 2012.
The company's P+P reserve of 43.3 mmboe valued @ $20/boe would yield a value of $866 million, while the current market cap (88 million shares X $4.53) is only $400 million! This of course does not really take into account production & additional oil resources!
Another Ol & G play in Canada that is extremely cheap if you have the "steel" to play the game while everyone else is leaving the park empty handed!
We like it & own it and believes WFE.TO offer investors a heavily discounted oil play with very attractive upside potential. We rate Westfire with a strong Buy recommendation at current levels.
Energold Drilling (egd.v or egdff.pk~ $4.31
52 wk range- $3.08- $6.02
51 million fully diluted shares outstanding.
Presentation~ review the April 20th 2012 on website. www.energold.com
Company provides drilling service to the mining and mineral exploration industries primarily in Mexico, Caribbean, Central America, South America, Africa and Asia. The Company operates 234 rigs in over 22 countries.
During 2011 exploration spending reached over $17 billion
During 2011 company reported record rev and profits and expanded its operation into a New Business segment.
Year-end results~ $133 million in sales vs $54.5 million and .64 net income/sh vs .05. Cash on-hand was $22.7 million at the end of 2011. Minerals drilled in meters~ 586 kilometers and Energy drilled in meters~444 kilometers.
Extra bonus: EGD.V also owns 6.87 million shares of Impact Silver Corp (IPT). This silver company is a profitable silver producer in Mexico.
Currently 8 analysts cover EGD.V
This is a very cheap stock and deserves a much higher stock multiple. Trailing 12 EGD.V sports a low risk PE of only 6.7~ When you consider the past growth ( organic and via acquisition) it is in our opinion that EGD.V should trade with a 12-15 PE~ a far cry from current levels. The energy segment in Canada is a real "boon" for EGD.V.
We like this opportunity and believe that it should be purchased at current prices. We rate with a Strong Buy!
Favorite Oil~ Coastal Energy~ cenjf.pk or cen.to-- May 2, 2012 stock price $18.14- releases excellent presentation and then recently released an excellent first Q for 2012- stock price $12.63~ Nothing has changed except that the herd is very scared with margin calls , redemptions & the drop in WTI by 15 dollars during the past few weeks which has destroyed this and every other oil related issue. The funny thing about Coastal is that they receive around $103.00 with discount because they rely on Brent and Dubai pricing! This stock has not been this cheap dating back to November 25th 2011 when Coastal had 30% less production and the oil price was very similar.
2. Dragon Oil $8.00 dragf.pk or dgo.l- review past alerts and read year-end results.
3. Kodiak Oil $7.93 kog- again has not been this cheap dating back to Nov 25th 2011. We have been in this issue from when it was trading under $2.00 and believe that it is a "Whale"! Company still is calling for 30k boepd for exist rate for 2012!
KOG may continue to trend lower~ so scale into the issue!
4. Sundance ~ sdcjf.pk-micro oil and gas play in the Bakken and other hot spots~we would re-nibble when and if it falls below .50~ still "like" but they print too much paper! Initially recommended sdcjf.pk around .16 and have make huge returns when stock blasted to $1.16! We "like" other oils as well such as nog,oas, clr, wll,axas and saldf.pk.
THE HERD IS USUALLY WRONG~ JUST LOOK AT FACEBOOK (FB). THEY OVER PRICED IT BY $10.00 BECAUSE OF THE HYPE. IT WAS GOING TO $80 ON THE FIRST DAY, BUT FIZZLED & BARELY CLIMBED PAST THE SKY HIGH IPO PRICE OF $38.00! I BET THAT WE COULD SEE $25.00 BEFORE WE SEE $50.00~ IN 90 DAYS THE FLOAT WILL INCREASE BY 55% WHEN THE LOCK-UP GATES FLOOD THE MARKET! THERE IS GOING TO BE SOME HUGE "RED" STAINS ON MANY OF THE FB WALLS FROM POTENTIAL LOSSES. FB'S TRAILING 12 IS SPORTING A PE OF 100!
Other social networking & media issues owned by investors have been slaughtered recently and many of these investors will need rehab not only for their addiction to their "cell phone" but how to cope with their huge losses in LNKD,ZNGA, YELP,GRPN,SPLK and P! ~~~ SPEAKING OF SOCIAL NETWORKING~ CONGRATS TO LIZ & JAY-BIRD FOR FINALLY TELLING THE WORLD THAT YOU GOT UNIONIZED~IT HAS ONLY BEEN 1 YEAR!
Final Note: RODM ~ brokerage firm ~ King & Queen of the "pipes" ~ current shares around .59- looks very juicy with little downside risk and could easily see a double from here with a better market! Could even be bought out!
We have not been paid by any mentioned company within this alert and may buy,sell and or hold @ our own discretion!
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