Please review most Oils monitored and 7 favorite investments.
Our Oil stock theory: price barometer indicates economic growth worldwide, big fish seems to always eat the little fish ( takeover candidates), growth by organic reserves and production and worldwide political risk areas.
Note: Our portfolio converted to 95% oil related issues during June 2009. We have included some 95% of our recommended investments from June 2009 to May 27, 2013. ( We left out the majority of sold positions- some winners and some losers. If you have interest in the sold issues please review past email alerts.)
We have not been paid for any of the listed investments and we may buy,sell and or hold theses securities @ our own discretion. We may also trade some of these issues for short term gains.
symbol-recom price- price-status
zptaf**3.58**4.74**B(recent recom within the March 18th 2013 email alert.)
This remains one of our favorites and believe that within a years time it should be $2-$3.00 -Their recent acquisition of Eagleford properties is the game changer! In a recent discussion with management, we have learned that SDCJF will dual list within the US during the late 3rd Q or early 4th Q of 2013. We have also read numerous reports stating that production in the Eagleford will surpass the Bakken within 1 year or so. This is extremely bullish for sdcjf considering their "cherry" is located in very oily acreage within the Eagleford play.
junior E&P North Sea player--we like long term--they receive Brent prices for their crude and much higher prices for the NG and other distillates.
A favorite oil that does business in the Gulf of Thailand-has huge growth potential ; most likely is a takeover candidate. Trading @ 8.5X 2013 average estimates of $2.00/sh. Only problem is that management is not investor friendly and does not give a damn about you or me! We must act like a "pilot fish" and go with the flow! Most likely worth at least mid to high 20's
This stock has been a "dog" for a very long time yet we actually believe that based upon their property, NAV (1.94), production (2300 beopd) and recent announcement of $2 million buy-back offers patient investors a very low risk entry point in this "ghost" pedigree. For around .57 (US$) you are buying asset for less than 1/3 their stated NAV. Their debt is a little high, but they are growing their cash flow rapidly and intend to sell non-core acreage. We believe that management should sell their "heavy" oil acreage and concentrate on their "cherry" Michichi acreage. We really like the risk reward scenario and new investors get to buy these shares much lower than our average of .72/sh. We have also learned that listing in the US is moving along and once completed we will have a much larger group of eyeballs viewing skwef and the company can also visit many more investment conferences and meet additional institutions.
Flash: On May 25-26, 2013 Sayer Energy Advisors released Property Divestiture pdf on mql.v/skwef. The doc offers $60 million worth of non-core acreage owned by skwef/mql.v. Final offers due on June 27, 2013. Management is becoming pro-active- share buy-back, sale of non-core assets and "dog & pony" shows planned.
Pure ND Bakken Play- A few years ago this "star" with a fraction of the production that it sports today was trading @ $32.69 (feb 2011). You now can buy nog with production of 11k boepd, a 30% increase over the same period last year only now it is trading near its 52 wk low. PE est. of 10X and 9X respectively.
Pure play ND Bakken play that everyone loves to hate. The stock has roughly been flat-line for the past 1 1/2 years. It trades @ 13X and 9X respectively. A takeover candidate that everyone wishes would already have happened!
A Russian micro-cap oil with over 2200 boepd and around 252 million shares outstanding. A small but growing integrated oil company. A tiny market cap- See presentation Feb 2013. I find ureyf very attractive @ current levels, but patient investor types need only apply. The other symbol in uen.l .
In some ways the Eagle Ford formation is turning more heads than the ND Bakken. This company concentrates primarily in the EF. Earning est. for 13 and 14 are $1.47 and $2.54 respectively.
Another ND Bakken Play with a Eastern Montana kicker. I believe that Montana is a "rabbit" patch. TPLM owns "cherry" acreage in ND and estimates for 1/14 and 1/15 are .59 and .94 respectively. For the oils in general, we need firmer and or higher oil prices, which can result from a weaker dollar, stronger economic growth or a conflict in the Middle East ( most likely Israel vs Iran because of growing Nuclear threat).
Recent numbers for the quarter yield confusion for investors. Holds sizable acreage in the Bakken + other oily areas. Offers investors a meager div. I believe if management would spin off their Bakken acreage into a separate company we would get some life out of this asset rich company. Most likely HESS is going split the company up and investors will be rewarded handsomely.
Typical micro-cap oil of late. Can always use extra cash, selling non-core assets, growing production, usual delays and flat oil prices. A few years ago this stock was over $5 with less production and less focus.
Only African Oil expose in portfolio. Trading well off recent high of $2.40 because of disruption and production problems. Regardless, on average had over 5000 bo/day and received over $100/barrel. A few days ago paid special .20 div and declared a .05 div/q or .20/year. Company is debt free with some $40 million in bank with a $100 million line. Plans with Shell to build new pipeline that will reduce disruptions and could double production by Dec 2013. We like this deal down @ current levels, but Nigeria is not Texas or ND! Nigeria is a playground full of corruption, Islamists and raiders.There is plenty of "sweet" crude within the district that mauxf "plays" in and should be kept on the radar for additional dips in its share price. There is definite risk, but also huge upside and a div too boot (14%)!
sd**5.23*S 1/2 @11.27* 5.07*H
High debt,losses, management is not very well liked, a huge est. reserves of 565 million boe. Investor's has a lack of confidence, but management is revamping the company and level of capex as well as direction of the company. At current levels ~ SD looks somewhat attractive but still downside risk is apparent if crude and or NG trend lower. Debt level is very high.
High leverage ETF- Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X~~ Huge profit for a couple of year hold~ aids us in additional working capital.
bexp****$3.95**$36.50**Sold Jan 2012
Bought during early summer of 2009. An early entry into the ND Bakken. A super huge win for us!
ssn**.59** sold 1/2@$3.83**Sell balance@ .48
Company running out of money so a "rights" offering in place. Low production and personally remaining monies can be put to better use.
Has never really recovered from the Gulf of Mexico disaster. Attractive 5% yield~ We assume that one of these days the company will spin-off some operations in order to release value to shareholders.The deepwater horizon accident of April 2010 is over three years old, but lawsuits still linger,but there is still huge value in bp and we assume it will be unlocked and the div will continue to grow.
California and Wyoming E&P. WRES is profitable, but real growth is flat-line. Trades near book and company is very well run, but do not see any real growth between 2013 and 2014.
dej**.30**.22** SELL NOW
Tired of waiting around~flat rev, another losing Q, more stock outstanding and capital can easily be put to better uses.
BXE is a western Canadian based growth oriented O & G E&P. Everything about BXE is quality. NAV @ the end of 2012 was $9.90 and 1P+2P equaled 104m boe. Earning est. for 2013 & 2014 are .42 and .78 respectively. Rev est. for the same time period grow from 319 million to 376 million. Class act and most likely will be cobbled up by a much larger fish one of these days.
We are done here. Move the money to a better home.
pbkef**13.10***8.32+ $1.92 div -pays .08/month.**H
recent name change- Lightstream resources. First Q~49k boepd,funds from operation $177 million, debt is high $2.4 billion, overall production is for the Q~ 52k mcf/d and 40k bbl/d=49k boepd. Exit rate is anticipated in the range 49k-52k boepd. Company on target to drill 129 wells. If NG prices would increase even $1.00 from current levels this stock would fly!
We have make numerous recommendations on mhr and to date it has been a good trader,but because of nagging accounting problems and late 10K filing the herd has left town for the summer. If there is one thing that Wall Street hates are accounting issues. MHR's estimates 10K to be released early to mid June 2013. There are other problems with MHR~lots of debt, Sold Eagleford property for much needed cash and recently the Utica (more gas than anticipated liquids) resource play is turning out not as promising as most thought! Like many O&G companies~ needs cash and firmer prices.
A world-wide major integrated O&G E&P company.Elliot Management own 17 million shares and a recently via proxy fight granted 3 board seat to EM. Investors and funds want HESS to divest downstream operations and focus on E&P. Can you imagine if they were to spin-off their ND Bakken acreage and production? Their current production of 40k boepd ranks as the largest gas producer and third largest oil producer. They currently control 252k acres. Earning est. for 2013 and 2014 respectively are $6.29 and $5.96 . HESS has recently been upgrade by Barclays to overweight. HESS trades @ 11.5X forward PE. If you can afford the stock it appears to be a great core holdings with a number of positive developments that could help unlock additional value to shareholders.
Who is going to buy OAS or who is OAS going to buy? I think OAS should buy either NOG or KOG! STO bought BEXP and should add to their footprint in ND OAS. CLR, the King of the ND Bakken,could easily buy either KOG, NOG or OAS(have to be cash and stock).
OAS earning est. for 2013 and 2014 are $2.65 and $3.42 respectively and control 335k acres in ND Bakken. The company has proved 143 million boe. A solid player in some of the best acreage in the Basin. This kind of earnings growth is why this stock bucks the O&G flat-line stock appreciation of most O&G players within North America.
CLR is the KING of the Bakken. This company is the "top shelf" of the O&G business in ND.
Earning est. for 2013 & 2014 are $5.24 and $6.91 respectively. This is huge earnings growth.
CLR currently controls some 1.2 million acres within the Bakken. The company states proved developed reserves of 318 million boe and 785 million boe of proved reserves. Total production/day equals 122k boepd and net of 77K boepd~ a 42% increase over 2012 first Q. This company is on "fire"! Their production is 71% crude. During 2013 CLR intends to drill 245 net (790 gross) wells in the Bakken. Even their Oklahoma property is "crying oil"! The company currently operates 22 rigs in the 1.2 million industry wide acres in the Bakken. For more information visit their website and review the May 8th first Q press release. CLR is truly the double diamond of the ND Bakken! This is an example of corporate America ( which of course Obama hates) when it shine bright!
dragf**7.35**9.70 *div of around .80 from the time of purchase until present. We rate dragf (dgo.l) with a B rating.
DRAGF ( dgo.l) ended first Q with an exit rate of 76,400 bopd ( 50% owned by Dubia Oil Company) , the company has a huge cash horde of $1.6 Billion and zero debt. Management still estimates that by the middle of 2015 production will reach 100K bopd. The company intends to drill between 13-15 well during 2013. The div is most likely going to continue to grow as it has every year. At present there are 677 million barrels of 2P reserves and 1.5 trillion cubic feet of gas~ there is also 59 million contingent resources and 1.4 trillion cubic feet of gas resources. DGO.l is primarily an offshore E&P company within an eastern section of the Caspian Sea located offshore from Turkmenistan. The company also has assets within Iraq, Tunisia and Afghanistan. This company offers steady growth, increasing dividend, potential takeover by parent or some other entity and surprise growth from other mentioned assets. We own it , believe in it and like it!
Salamander is an active UK oil E&P in Asia, primarily focusing on 3 fields in Thailand and Indonesia. Last year the company raised cash to reduce debt and fund current drilling program. The estimated production exit rate for 2013 is 12,500-15,000 boepd. The proved and probable reserves equals some 73.3 million boe. We like this opportunity because it reminds us of Coastal Energy(cenjf) in a small way. Can the stock deliver in the same fashion as Coastal? The drill bit tells all!
Energold Drilling Corp. offers drilling services to the mining and energy sectors worldwide. The Company operates 230 rigs in 24 countries. On May 26th 2013 the company released first Q record rev and earnings via press release. Rev climbed to $54 million and net/sh was .07. The adjusted earnings for the Q was .15/fully diluted shares. The company has limited debt and has $22 million in cash. The mining division remains muted, while the energy division is firing on all cylinders. According to "Yahoo" egd.v has 48 million fully diluted shares outstanding and has a stated BK of $2.73. The company also holds 7 million shares of IMPACT Silver corp(IPT.V~.57/sh).The success of share appreciation is totally based upon utilization~ the mining is a drag while the energy sector is robust! The shares appear under-valued and have the potential to move 50-100% during the next 4 quarters. The mining sector according to management has bottomed and any additional demand by the junior miners will propel egd.v much higher than current levels. We see very little risk at current levels and believe that even a "trade" has merit considering the current share price!
wfref* 4.53* 4.19* BB
Westfire change their name to Long Run Exploration (lre.to or wfref~otc). The company primarily is an E&P in Western Canada. Please review the most current presentation May 22, 2013 and review the 1st Q released on May 7th 2013 for greater detail. At present there are 126 million shares outstanding. The first Q production was around 23.6K boepd (52% oil). The estimated exit rate is 26.5k boepd. The 1P+2P=NAV of $9.60. During 2013 management plans on drilling 132 wells and presently controls over 1.8 million acres. The current share price of $4.19 offer investors a very limited downside risk scenario, while the upside potential exists near 100% during the next 12 months. We also believe that @ current levels LRE.T looks like a juicy takeover candidate. We like it and of course own it!
spgyf*7.00* 10.65*(div .60)*B*
Whitecap Resources (wcp.to) is an active E&P in Western Canada. Recently declared a .05/sh div/month. The current P+P= 95 million boe and 1P equals 68 million boe. As of March 2013 wcp.to had over 903 net wells( does not take into account recent $110 million acquisition of 900 boepd and acreage). At present there are some 153 million shares outstanding. The current pro-forma yields 1387 Oil development well inventory. At present 72% of production is Oil and NGL's and production est. for 2013 is in the range of 18,000 boepd. The estimated cf/sh is $1.80 and the Capex equals $170 million with 89 wells planned for drilling during 2013. Please review the current presentation on Whitecap @ website www.wcap.ca (May 22nd 2013 presentation). Investors have really perked up towards wcp.to recently because the company has become a div security. We believe that LRE.TO and SGY.TO have similar plans to issue dividends in the near future. Bottom-line WCP.TO is a strong Mid-level Oil with organic growth, growing dividend, sound management, growing cash flow, dedicated management and attractive upside for share price appreciation.
An E&P exclusively in NA. Their acreage is confined to the Bakken, Eagleford and the Utica. Total acreage is some 451k combined. The estimated proved reserves equal 109 million boe. For the year-ending 2013 & 2014 est. rev and earnings are .33 and $1 billion and .66 and $1.64 billion.
One way or another HK is trading near its 52 wk low & currently sports a trading price of $5.50/sh. Recently the company announced results from its first drills within the Utica Shale Play and the results have not reached most expectations & the herd crushed the shares. Most anticipated Oil vs greater NG. Until the acreage in the Utica can be "unlocked" with the "formula" to displace the oil~ we may see reduced rev and earnings for 2013. Unless additional negative news is released we see little downside risk near term, but actually see a "trade" for at least .50 on the upside.
A true love/hate relationship~The President, F. Wilson is believed to be able to find the bubbling crude that eludes other. He guided Petrohawk from a small E&P in 2003 only to sell to BHP for $12.1 Billion in July 2011! To many he is a true Oil GOD!
Is he a one trick pony or a Master of the Universe? We personally would not sell him "short"! He has been in the oil business for over 40 years and has had continued success. HK is far from being ranked as a misstep! We rate HK with a strong speculative buy@ currently depressed levels.
TOP NON-OIL RELATED INVESTMENT
Asia Pacific Wire & Cable apwc $4.00~ We first recommended a few years ago @ .87 during the market market melt-down of 2009.
The company is a leading manufacturer of wire and cable products for the teleco and Electric-power industries in the Asia-Pacific region. THIS IS NOT A CHINA COMPANY! IT IS TAIWAN BASED AND THEIR AUDITOR IS ERNST AND YOUNG!
At present there are only 13.8 million shares outstanding. Revenue for 2012 equaled $462 million and net income/sh a very strong .79.
Very Bullish comments from management," Positive trends in Profits and margins throughout 2013".
Presently there is $90 million in cash or cash equivalents or $6.52/sh ~ cash value is some 63% above the share price!
The current book value is $162 million ~ if we include the minority interest the book value is $215 million. The stated bk is either $11.70 or $15.57/sh.
APWC owns 51% of Charoong Thai & cable (200 million shares priced @ US.46)~This amounts to around $98 million in value. The total market cap of apwc currently is only $55 million!
Some will say that apwc is "dead money" or a "value trap" and they might be right, but we are willing to wait for a catalyst that doubles or triples our investment. It is only a matter of time before something changes. Of course we are not happy with management concerning the execution of a workable program to get their shares up to a more fairly priced valuation, but we are not giving them up for less than $10.00. There has been talk about a cash dividend. In our opinion, this company could also be sold. Anyway you slice or dice apwc it is rated as a strong buy recommendation @ current levels. APWC currently trades on the Global NASDAQ.
SPECIAL OFFER FOR S A ADVISORY INVESTORS( EXPIRES JUNE 21, 2013~ SO ACT FAST)
Web addresses for all listed investments
THE GOLD STOCKS HAVE BEEN HAMMERED WORSE THAN THE METAL. WE LIKE 2 GOLD STOCKS THAT ARE WORTH NIBBLING @
IAG AND KGC
52 WK RANGE $4.60-$16.80
10 31 2011~trading @ $22.73
REV & EARNINGS EST. 2013 & 2014 .55/$1.47B~~~.66/$1.67B
EVERYONE HATES THIS INDUSTRIAL GROUP MAKING US INTERESTED~ WORTH THE NIBBLE.
52 WK RANGE~ $5-$11.20
2013 & 2014 REV & EARNINGS EST. .46/$4.09BIL & .57/$4.19BIL
SEPT 5, 2011--TRADED @ $18.00 AGAIN WORTH THE NIBBLE.
TOP 7 OIL PICKS
8.UREYF-.085 (summer surprise)
DON'T GET US WRONG~ WE LOVE ALL OF OUR INVESTMENTS~ HES, CLR, KOG, SN,CWEI AND THE REST OF THE HERD! THE OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY IS GOING TO FREE US FROM THE ISLAMIST'S FOREVER WITHIN A FEW YEARS. THIS INDUSTRY WILL CREATE JOBS AND BRING BACK INDUSTRY THAT RELY ON AMPLE FUEL AND A SECURE GOVERNMENT. FORGET SOLAR,WIND AND ELECTRIC~ THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN IS OIL AND CHEAP GAS! IT IS TOO BAD THAT OUR LEADERSHIP DOESN'T HAVE A CLUE AND WILL NEVER GET IT! THINGS ARE GOING TO CHANGE AND AMERICA WILL RISE TO THE TOP AGAIN REGARDLESS OF OUR LEADERSHIP! DON'T GIVE IN TO THIS "PC" CLIMATE THAT WEAKENS OUR SPIRIT AND WHAT BEING AN AMERICAN REALLY MEANS. THINK AND GROW RICH~ DEPEND UPON YOURSELF AND REFUSE TO BE PART OF THE HERD! GET OFF YOUR STUPID PHONE THAT IS SUCKING YOUR SPIRIT AND SOUL AND GO HAVE A CONVERSATION OR READ A BOOK THAT STIMULATES!
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