Our 3 favorite stocks within our portfolio that top our list of investments--- sdcjf, cenjf and apwc.
Our 2 new investments~~ HK & SN.
The economy remains "flat-line" and business hiring and expansion is on "strike" against Obama and his Anti- Capitalist policies. If he is re-elected we will most likely have another recession during 2013! With Bush's tax cut due to expire @ the end of 2012, the fiscal cliff and Obamacare metastasizes in 2013~ the US economy is going to stagnate. The many voters that think another 4 years of Obama will improve their lives are in for a big surprise~ more welfare, more food stamps, less jobs, higher taxes and reduced quality of healthcare.
If Obama gets re-elected the market goes down 300-500 points, but if Romney gets the nod we believe that we could see a 1000 point explosion on the upside. The market will look ahead and believes that Romney will begin the re-birth of America and American Business.
Favorite 3 current stock holdings:
1. SDCJF- first recommended @ .16 currently @ .80. Recent game changer was the sale of property in the Bakken for $171,000,000.00! This allows SDCJF to expand into other areas of interest or faster development of current acreage and or the acquisition of new properties or even merge into another oil company that is in need of a huge cash horde for development. When you consider that the current market cap is around $218 million and the "new" cash horde is around $171 million ~ it is easy to see that you now get the rest of sdcjf for free~ management still estimates that boepd will be in the range of 5000 boepd within 2 years~~ current production after the sale of the property is around 750 boepd. We believe that SDCJF is extremely cheap and undervalued. We also believe that management will engage in a listing within the US market place. The Australian investment community is too small and do not fully understand the full impact of this "game changer" and it is in our opinion that this stock is worth at least double the current price.
Visit www.sundanceenergy.com.au & review the Canaccord Presentation dated Oct 16, 2012.
The current oil prices have been on a recent slide because of lower demand, higher production and less premium for Middle East conflicts which have resulted in lower share prices for almost ALL Oil and Gas shares. We believe that this current scenario is a short term blip in the eventual upside in crude prices. We also believe that the Middle East will eventually explode into conflict which in turn yields higher oil prices and higher oil related shares prices.
2. APWC-($3.00) The only non-oils that we favor and hold a large position in regardless that it has been a terrible performer during the past 2 years. The company manufacturers copper wire, fiber optics and enamel wiring primarily in Asia. We have always been a discounted value investor for some 35 years and believe that this is the cheapest stock in the worl; even though most of the world continues to struggle growing their economies ~ Asia has bucked the trend and continue to see 6-8% growth. For a $3 dollar stock we see almost zero downside risk. At present, the current book value is stated @ $11.06 ( this does not include the minority interest which adds another $5.00/sh or a total bk of $16.00). The total cash value/sh is stated @ $5.44. Revenue for the first 6 months of 2012 reached $215 million and net/sh equaled .38. We anticipate that the second half will mirror the first half~~We believe that $450 million in revenue and .70-.75 net income/sh for 2012. Management has finally agreed that APWC is very cheap and have announced a $2 million dollar share repurchase program over the next 12 months.
Dead money for the time being, but one day this company will become fully valued or sold and $10.00/sh would not be out of the question.
Additional food for thought: APWC owns 51% of Charoong Thai Wire and Cable (ctw~TB~~US .315 share price) APWC owns roughly 200 million shares or a market cap value of $63 million. APWC's current market cap is only $41 million.
In our opinion, APWC remains the cheapest stock that we currently own and monitor. For most that have no time horizon for investing, APWC will not fit in his or her portfolio, but for the patient investor that is looking for a home run one of these days APWC cannot be overlooked!
APWC REMAINS A TOP PICK FOR 2012 AND BEYOND!
3. CENJF $18.56 ( initially recommended $5.64, $10.55 and $9.20. Coastal Energy currently is an E & P on and off shore of Thailand and recently formed a joint venture with Malaysia's Petronas. We first ventured into CEN.to, CEO.l or CENJF during the early spring of 2011 and we have never looked back. This company prints money because they have the magic touch when it comes to finding oil and gas especially off-shore in the Gulf of Thailand. Go to website: www.coastalenergy.com and review the Oct 2012 presentation for current and future corporate activities during the next 3 to 12 months. Please review the past 3 months of news releases that indicate future plans of Coastal Energy. We see that a second rig is anticipated to begin drilling during Nov 2012, a joint venture with Malaysia's largest E & P and continued success in their drilling program. Major brokerage firms have very attractive price targets for Coastal~~ CIBC~~~~$22.50
Visit www.investorvillage.com and input cen.to and review actual brokerage reports within the message board.
We believe that it is just a matter of time before Coastal is snagged by a Major E & P. The company primarily receives Dubai Oil prices which is comparable to Brent.
The only problem with Coastal is that management NEVER has delivered a conference call for investors and actually does little with respect to communicating with shareholders on a one to one . Regardless, Coastal remains our TOP pick in the E & P patch.
Dragon Oil~ dgo.l or dragf- another great International driller in the Caspian Sea~ super cheap with an attractive yield~ another eventual takeover candidate.
New stock briefs recommendations~~SN &HK .
Halcon Resources HK $6.40 NYSE
A "new" domestic Oil E & P with a jockey that recently sold Petrohawk to BHP Billiton for $12.1 Billion that was built from a $60 million dollar investment 10 years prior. Floyd Wilson the Chairman, President and CEO of Halcon has had a remarkable run within the O & G Industry and HK already has the ingredients to follow the path of his past; build it and then sell it! ( If you are an Obama supporter you of course believe that Government built it!)
Halcon was formed during November 2011 when RAM was acquired, then a 1 for 3 reverse and NYSE listing replaced the NASDAQ listing, acquired Utica Shale acreage, acquired Geo Resources, additional acreage in TX and recently (Oct 2012) acquired additional acreage within the Williston basin for $1.45 Billion from Petro-Hunt .
Note: Pro-forma debt is $1.8 billion.
Note: November 8th 2012- 3rd quarter #'s to be released and Corporate Update including estimates.
Pro- forma basis HK has over 135k acres within the Williston Basin and the company declares current average net production is approximately 26,500 boepd.
The completion of this transaction will yield a total estimated proven reserves of 115 million barrels of oil equivalent, 79% of which is liquids.
At least 9 brokerage firms with analyst coverage are bullish on HK. Please visit the website: www.halconresources.com and review the press, articles and recent presentation ( Oct 22, 2012) for complete overview of HK. The October 2nd 2012 corporate update and October 22nd 2012 presentation sums up the whole story that HK is in the early stages of corporate execution and we believe that HK should be bought to "ride the tiger" for huge upside potential during the next 6-12 months.
We believe that when recent debt offering is completed on or about Nov 6th 2012 that HK will begin to firm. Lower Oil prices will hamper investor interest, but again we are in this deal for the long term.
We suggest that a position is built slowly during the next few weeks.
The uncertainty of the Presidential election on Nov 6th 2012, the "Monster" storm that has attacked the Eastern corridor, the continued EU insolvency problems , the global economy and the Middle East all add to the volatility of the world crude market.
We view HK as a strong BUY @ current levels because of management and viable plan for explosive growth.
Sanchez Energy ( SN ~NYSE-- $17.77)
Sanchez Energy is an independent E & P that currently is focused on the Eagle Ford Shale trend of South Texas. The company has 95,000 net acres in the volatile oil, black oil and gas condensate windows of the Eagle Ford.
SN just released a press release that shows current production of 1700 boed ending the third Q and reaffirms 2012 exit rate of 4000-5000 boepd. The company recently completed a $150 million convertible preferred equity offering and this will allow SN too accelerate their drilling program ( 6 rigs~ 2 rigs/3 areas).
The company is also testing tighter spacing in each of their drilling areas, which may allow SN to increase their 800-1200 potential drilling sites and their 250-300 million boe net resources potential on 80-120 acre well spacing.
At present SN has 13 wells in various stages of drilling,completion, or initial flow back following fracture stimulation.
In addition, SN plans to spud 12 wells during November and December.
Visit www.sanchazenergy.com and review the Oct 2012 presentation.
SN has received a $250 million credit facility , a $250 million term loan and completed a $150 million preferred convert. This huge available cash horde will allow for dramatic development of their "prime" Eagle Ford acreage in Texas. Earnings estimates are due to explode from .30/sh for 2012 to $1.40 for 2013. The brokerage community has 10 Buy ratings placed on SN with a high target price of $38.00/sh and a mean valuation of $29.00/sh.
In our opinion, SN is a winner today and will be a huge winner tomorrow. S. A. seriously doubts that SN will be a stand alone company by the end of 2013. This company has the management, acreage and cash to deliver the numbers that will double the share price before the end of 2013, unless they get bought out !
If you are looking for a "pure" Eagle Ford play at a discounted value with little risk then SN is for your portfolio.
We rate SN with a Strong Buy rating @ current levels.
We may buy, sell and or hold any of the listed investments at our own discretion.
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