~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
S.A.Advisory Newsletter
January 15, 2004
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Contents of this Newsletter:
-- YEAR-END REVIEW 01-01-03 TO 01-02-04---79% GAIN FROM PORTFOLIO
-- FOR 2004 WE BELIEVE THAT THE NASDAQ WILL REACH 2500-SEE REASONS:
-- RUSSIAN PORTFOLIO
-- TOP STOCK PICKS FOR 2004
-- TOP INCOME PICK FOR 2004
Dear william,
We have not been paid by any of the listed investments within this research report. We may buy, sell and/or hold any investment @ our own discretion. If you do not want our material
any longer- visit www.saadvisory.com/update and follow the directions.
YEAR-END REVIEW 01-01-03 TO 01-02-04---79% GAIN FROM PORTFOLIO
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
All of our portfolios are averaged together (see complete list with August 27, 2003 & October 20, 2003 email alerts) resulted in a 79% gain. Please review our top 30 gainers and our
most recent opinion! This list includes OTCBB, NASDAQ, NYSE & AMEX listings.
| SYMBOL |
PRICE RECOMM. |
Year-end |
% Gain |
STATUS |
| MTCL |
.22 |
1.14 |
418 |
S1/2 |
| AFPC |
.14 |
.70 |
400 |
B |
| IECE |
.48 |
2.15 |
348 |
S1/2 |
| DHB |
1.66 |
6.94 |
318 |
B |
| TARG |
.15 |
.55 |
266 |
B/H |
| ENPT |
.80 |
2.89 |
261 |
B |
| FDRY |
7.04 |
23.00 |
228 |
S |
| AES |
3.02 |
9.48 |
213 |
B/H |
| NITE |
4.79 |
14.61 |
205 |
B/H |
| SANM |
4.49 |
12.56 |
179 |
B |
| AES |
3.02 |
9.48 |
178 |
B/H |
| WMB |
3.58 |
9.84 |
174 |
B/H |
| VTSS |
2.18 |
5.90 |
170 |
B/H |
| EEGL |
1.04 |
2.62 |
151 |
B |
| LU |
1.26 |
3.12 |
147 |
B |
| CC |
4.13 |
10.10 |
144 |
S |
| ETEC |
.36 |
.88 |
144 |
B |
| DYN |
2.03 |
4.55 |
124 |
B |
| PDGE |
.27 |
.60 |
122 |
H |
| NT |
2.08 |
4.49 |
115 |
B |
| INTC |
15.57 |
32.16 |
106 |
S1/2 |
| ELNK |
5.45 |
10.51 |
93 |
H |
| SLR |
2.99 |
5.96 |
88 |
B |
| GR |
15.50 |
29.14 |
88 |
B |
| TXN |
15.75 |
29.31 |
86 |
B/H |
| CSCO |
13.09 |
24.25 |
85 |
B/H |
| TYC |
14.75 |
27.00 |
83 |
B |
| MOT |
8.16 |
14.50 |
77 |
B/H |
| EMC |
7.51 |
13.22 |
76 |
B/H |
| PVN |
6.49 |
11.41 |
75 |
B |
FOR 2004 WE BELIEVE THAT THE NASDAQ WILL REACH 2500-SEE REASONS:
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
1. LOW INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT
2. LOW INFLATION
3. ECONOMIC RECOVERY GAINING STRENGTH- ONLY MISSING LINK IS THE EMPLOYMENT PICTURE.
4. YEAR OF PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION USUALLY BULLISH FOR THE MARKET. IF MARKET THOUGHT THAT BUSH WOULD GET BEAT THE MARKET WOULD DROP.
5. NEAR RECORD SHORT POSITION IN STOCKS ON MAJOR EXCHANGES
6. MUTUAL FUNDS STILL UNDER OWNED & HUGE CASH HOARD ON SIDE LINE ( IRA, ROTH IRA, 401K, ECT, ECT)
7 STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF NON-BELIEVERS SITTING ON THE SIDE LINE
8 SEASONAL PERIOD OF YEAR - USUALLY STRONGEST PART OF THE CYCLE
9 EARNING ESTIMATES APPEAR TO BE RISING. WE REMAIN 100% INVESTED AND 25% ADDITIONAL ON MARGIN.
WE REMAIN VERY BULLISH TOWARDS 2004 We believe that 04 will not be as easy as 03. In our opinion it will be a stock pickers market. We like the power generation group (
cpn,dyn,aes), we like Big Pharma ( sgp,mrk,pfe), we like and will continue to search out cheap and undervalued "penny stocks". We are very Bullish on the EMS industrial segment ( flex,sanm, slr,vsh).
We like one Russian Oil Giant, namely, SIBNEFT (sbkyy- $26.50)--recently broke off merger with Yukos. See Russian Portfolio within the research--It pays to invest for the LONGTERM!!!
We are negative on the Gold Stocks. We think that "tech" is expensive, but will continue to move higher. If we reach 2550 on the NASDAQ we would be extremely happy. We see little chance
of an interest rate hike during the next 6 months. One unknown negative for the market is if another 9-11 happened within our boundaries.
Finally, we are very Bullish on Oil & Gas drilling programs that we continue to participate in. See information within this research.
RUSSIAN PORTFOLIO
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
| COMPANY |
SYMBOL |
RECOMMEND PRICE & DATE |
CURRENT PRICE |
STATUS |
| Vimpel Com |
vip |
$5.75 (9/23/98) |
$78.21 |
S 1/2 of balance
sold initial 1/2 position @ $27.85 12/06/01 |
| Templeton Russian Fund |
trf |
$8.50 (10/16/98) |
$33.20 | <
S 1/2 |
| Lukoil |
lukoy |
$13 (9/23/98) |
$ 97.00 |
S 1/2 |
| Surgutneftegas |
sgtzy |
$8.25 (7/01/95) |
$30.00 |
H |
| Sibneft |
sbkyy |
$3.50 (7/1/99) |
$26.50 |
B |
OUR FAVORITE LARGE CAP INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY FOR 2004
PFIZER ( PFE) current price $34.90
Drug stocks have been beaten down for much of the last 2 years (sgp,mrk,pfe) PFE is totally out-of-favor with the overly medicated herd! The company has a host of new drugs in
development. The pipeline of new drugs fight conditions such as epilepsy, high blood pressure & arthritis. At $35.60 PFE trades @ 17X for the next 4 quarters, well below its 5-year median of
26.5X. While we wait investors receive a modest yield of 1.9%. We see very little downside risk @ current levels. By the time the herd gets wind of this juicy prize that prescribe a level of
patients-PFE will most likely be trading @ $50.00. All the news is already baked into this stock and if results are only slightly more rosy-this stock will zoom. One of PFE's prize drugs, namely,
Lipitor has over 50% of the cholesterol lowering medications market. This stock is high priced and it eats up a sizable amount of working capital, but is worth it. It is also a great defensive stock
- offers great diversification within a basket of diverse investment opportunities. Another pill-to-pop is the stated Enterprise Value which equals $268.75- a far cry from the stated share value of
$35.60. We also like SGP @ lower levels, but has more problems to contend with than PFE..
Total Speculation Stock----MSITF--price .0067 on the pinks--Aids test kit!
TOP STOCK PICKS FOR 2004
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
AFP IMAGINING ( OTC-BB-- AFPC ) CURRENT PRICE .60
The company has been engaged in the business of designing, developing, manufacturing and distributing equipment for producing medical and dental x-ray images via digital technology.
Medical, dental, veterinary and industrial professionals use these products. It should not be overlooked that AFPC ( been in business for over 25 years) has transformed itself from a graphics arts
and low tech dental company ready for the trash bin into a high- tech digital imagining company in roughly 2 years that is profitable!
For Q1 of fiscal 04 rev was around $4 mil and net income /sh was .01. It is in our opinion because of the improved balance sheet; resulting from a reduction of expenses, no additional
discontinued operation expense, all goodwill written off during fiscal 03 and lower interest expense will allow AFPC to prosper during 04 and beyond.
At present AFPC has a joint marketing effect with pharmaceutical giant (PFE), whereby the products that they distribute to veterinary businesses must use their pharmaceuticals ( antirobe
& doxirobe).
AFPC's owned sub "Dent-x" has recently developed and is currently marketing a new digital x-ray sensor that replaces x- ray film! This "new" line of computerized dental x-ray imaging
products will be used for the veterinarian and human markets. This "new" product is going to be a great revenue producer for organic growth and will most likely change the shape of AFPC within the
next 6-18 months.
It is our opinion that AFPC will easily reach rev of $20 million and earn at least $750-$800k for fiscal 04 ( Note: afpc has a large NOL and will not pay any federal tax for years). With
roughly 9 million shares fully diluted and outstanding- this equates to .08/sh in earnings ( this number could be low- we believe that Q2 of 04 is going to be exceptionally strong-to be released
02/14/04).
Fundamentally speaking AFPC trades @ an estimated 7.5x 04 earnings-we believe AFPC should trade @ a 15-20x PE est. because of the cutting edge technology that is being marketed with
respect to animal and human dental advances. AFPC also sports a very attractive PSR of only .25. When AFPC is compared to one of its major competitor (schk- $7.00) it is in our opinion that AFPC when
identified by the herd ( not Mad-cow related) has the potential to be a multiple dollar stock during the next 6-18 months. Their dental products in our opinion are superior in performance and more
cost effective than (schk) and the share price of AFPC is a fraction of this competitor!
AFPC is fully reporting with the SEC, does not intend to delist-list, is very much acquisition oriented and is obscure and unknown to the investing community. Picking stocks for 04 will
be different than for free-for- all of 03. Stocks that are unique, under followed and undervalued will be the prizes of 04-We believe that AFPC will deliver a "digital" picture of wealth for prudent
investors.
TOP INCOME PICK FOR 2004
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
We have remained extremely Bullish on direct participation in Oil & Gas drilling programs, which we introduced last year via Dick Davis Income Pick for 03! In our opinion, it
is very important to diversify ones investment dollars across a variety of opportunities. We continue to actively Buy interest within select oil and gas drilling programs which can offer tax
incentive as well as monthly income depending upon the success of the O & G drilling program.
During 03 we participated in 2 proven oil and gas drilling programs ( the Elysian Field- a 4 well successfully drilled and currently producing 2,500 mcf/day with multiple zones to be
completed as producing zones are depleted- We anticipate production from this field to last 10+ years. The other project, The Yoakum, was a 2 well program and both were successful producers and
currently yielding 730 mcf/day- with additional zones and a life expectancy of 7+ years). We have been receiving checks on both projects! Pay- out on both projects should be 7-10X the initial
investment with very favorable tax advantage. We also anticipate pay-out for initial investment to be around 6 months for both projects.
We are currently participating in the "Heyser" ( a 3 well Oil & Gas proven and probable project with a potential of 6- O & G zones/well) to be drilled. We anticipate that the
first well to be spud during early March 04. For more information in direct ownership in this low risk - high return proven & probable project call Chauncey @ Energy Equities located within Texas
@ 1-800-794-3429 for a info package on this program.
Visit www.saadvisory.com or www.nasdaqstocksrus.com for complete updates on previous wells. Leave email address on site for free stock recommendations and updates.
Corporate Office: S. A. Advisory, 2274 Arbor lane #3, SLC Utah 84117 801-272-4761
Visit our websites: www.saadvisory.com, www.nasdaqstockrus.com and leave us your email address for "free" recommendations. For personal conversation and recommendations with editor for
1 Year $650.00 |
