S. A. Advisory - E-mail Update September 28th, 2009 - The Cheapest Asian Stock in the Universe!--New Recommendation!

S.A. Advisory E-Mail Update

$Account.OrganizationName
NEW BUY RECOMMENDATIONS, PLAYS & UPDATES

 

STOCK PORTFOLIO RESULTS!

The Cheapest Asian Stock in the Universe!--New Recommendation!

September 28th, 2009

ASIA PACIFIC WIRE & CABLE

symbol awrcf.ob price $2.50

Every few months we mention this unknown gem to our herd of investors assuming that a few smart ones would see the true severely discounted value that is for the picking, for a select bunch of investors known as "Value Investors"

Asia Pacific Wire & Cable is a leading manufacturer of wire and cable products for the teleco and power industries in the Asia Pacific Region.

AWRCF.OB has subs in China, Australia, Singapore, Thailand & Hong Kong.

The website: http://www.apwcc.com

Please take some time and review this excellent website; it will make you a believer!

The numbers will tell you the rest of the story! For the year ending Dec 31st 2008 awrcf.ob had revenues of $500 million and net loss of .99/fully diluted share ( 13.8 million shares outstanding).

Upon review, one must understand that the company uses copper for the production of all varieties of wire. The inventory at the end of 08 had to be written down to the current price of copper ( around $1.35/lb). This resulted in a $25 million dollar write down against earnings. If they did not have this write down awrcf.ob would have earned .85/sh!!!!

Copper prices since Dec 31st 2008 have rebounded sharply and stand at around $2.75/lb. This means that when they announce their first 6 months of 2009 ending June 30th 2009 on 09/29/ 09 at their Annual meeting being held in Taipei, Taiwan it is our belief that the income statement will show a huge gain vs the huge loss that was taken for year ending Dec 31st 2008!

INTERESTED INVESTORS CAN PARTICIPATE IN THE CONFERENCE CALL ON SEPT 29TH 2009 BY CALLING 1-800-732-5617 AT 9 AM EST.

In our opinion, we will see a large gain from copper inventory adjustments which should add between $1-$2 dollars in net income/sh for the first 6 of 09.

Another important factor that must be taken into account during the first 6 of 09 is the sale back of around 1.4 million shares of stock purchased from Michael Dell's ( owner of DELL) for about $6 million or about a .50/share hit. The stock was repurchased because AWRCF.OB was unable to list on a major exchange by a certain date and because of this "dell" was able to "put" 1/2 of his position back to the company. Dell's fund still owns another 1.4 million shares being held for investment .

As mentioned earlier-- there were 13.8 million shares outstanding- The treasury bought back the 1.4 million shares from "dell" so now we have 12.4 million which will be used for accurate balance sheet and income statement calculations.

THE FACTS THAT WILL MAKE YOU WANT TO BUY SHARES IN AWRCF.OB

We assume a .50/sh loss from stock purchase, we assume $2.00/sh gain from copper inventory appreciation, we do not assume currency gain or loss and because of the recovery in Asia that awrcf.ob may earn .35 from operations for the 6 months ending June 30th 2009.

We now base our numbers on the new number of shares outstanding --12.4 million.

Calculations:(-.50)+$2.00+.35=$1.85/sh--We will give it a margin of error of 50% so we calculate .93 income/sh for the six months ending June 30th 2009.

The BK at the end of 2008 was $114 million - we will sub out the goodwill of $ 9 million resulting in actual equity of $105 million. If we add in the "extra" conservative net income/sh for the 6 months ending June 30th 2009 we get an est. BK of $117 million and based upon the real shares outstanding of around 12.4 million the result BK/sh is $9.43

The total cash horde at the end of 2008 was a mind blowing $60,000,000.00-- If we base that upon our current shares outstanding the resulting per share value is $4.83

The bank debt has also dropped dramatically- At the end of 07 bank debt stood at $102 million vs $58 million at the end of 08!

The current PSR based upon 2008 numbers are extremely low & indicate a severely undervalued valuation for awrcf.ob-- PSR=.06 Recall a value of 1 is considered cheap and undervalued. We also subbed out the $58 million in bank debt in our calculations.

Recently AWRCF.OB announced a total of $69 million dollars worth of "new" contracts for the Singapore sub and announced that their China sub has for the first time attainted full production capacity to meet increased sales demand.

Bottomline: Trading at less than 1/3 book, trading at 1/2 cash, reduced bank debt by 50%, major growth opportunity vs flatline growth in the USA, extremely low PSR and an estimated PE of 2X 09 numbers ( based upon .93 for the first six and another .45 for the second half of 09).

Finally, we still assume and management has expressed that listing on major exchange is planned as soon as price of stock qualifies for listing.

As mentioned earlier, this stock is not for the trader it is for the value investor that realizes that sometimes holding a stock for more than 24 hours will returns 5-10X your investment if you have staying power and can see the big and extremely profitable picture looming in the future.

Personally, We believe that if management is not careful, someone is going to come along and 'tender" the shares between $10-$15.

WE RATE AWRCF.OB WITH A STRONG BUY RATING AT CURRENT PRICES!


STOCK PICKS 10/26/2008--09/26/09

symbol---cost----current price--- status

awrcf.ob---1.25----- 2.75--------- buy

tbv----------1.55------5.19--------sell 1/2 now--

feed--------2.58------sold 1/2 6.09 still holding balance----------------5.72----------------

evk---------.80--------2.09---------sold some march 29th 2009--------------------- hold

fas---------24.74 sold total @ $80.00------------- - 08/30/09

gbx-----------3.27 and more @ $8 sold 1/2 @10.49 and the balance 08/30/09 @13.40

mtw-----------4.02------------9.52---sell 1/2

mic-----------4.00------------9.13----sell 1/2

aes----------6.42------------14.32----sell 1/2

dow--------9.53 sold 1/2 @ 21.17 holding balance-current price 25.30--------

aa-----------9.41--------13.08------buy/hold-

tso---------8.89---------14.54-------HOLD

mvco-------7.55-------bought out 11.50

gti---------- 6.21------14------buy/hold

stld---------9.59-----16.61----buy/hold

hio---------3.73-------5.76 buy/hold- we have received .61 div-------------------------

hero--------5.56-----5----------buy/hold

auy---------4.03-----10--------buy/hold

pdvg.pk----.15------.10-------strong hold

erx---------25--------38.20----hold ------

smtx--------.52-------.88-----hold--------

dgtc.ob------.60-------.55----- strong buy--------

naq-wt-------.18-------.28 sold----------

mhco.pk-----1.00-----.10 buy/hold - risky chapter 11 play----------------------

apt-----------1.58-------4.58 buy/hold- H1N1 mask play- should own it on weakness

tgx----------1.29----- 1.64-------buy/hold

fcg---------12.22-----16.18-----buy/hold

ung--------13.10------11.97-----buy------

mbrx--------.48---------.40------sheepish buy

cll.to-------.83---------1.02------buy-----

bexp------3.95---------8.92-----buy

lny-------8.82---------10.76----buy/hold

vsr-------3.65---------3.69----buy---

axas------.96----------1.51----buy

rodm------2.05--------5.16-- strong buy

icoc------4.09---------4.69-----buy--

ktcc------2.05--------2.25------buy--

useg------2.75--------4.00-----buy--

kog--------1.28--------2.17----buy-


NOTES:

1. We remain extremely bullish towards the Williston Basin plays located in the Great State of North Dakota. At present the Bakken formation and Three forks formation are the prime drilling depths & there is even talk of the lodgepole limestone that it might be the "cherry" on top!

The technique of multiple "fracs" are exciting oilmen worldwide! The Basin is thought to have Billions of Oil and with these new methods of extraction, drilling is at a feverish pace. BEXP is thought to have refined the multiple "frac" method and the result by BEXP has been dramatic. The current well being completed will have 28 "fracs"! Results are coming soon! Our USEG is our PILOT FISH of BEXP (read august 31st email alert)! USEG has a huge cash horde, geothermal properties, Moly properties, other oil and gas properties and real estate. Will participate in 15 wells with BEXP on their prime property. KOG & AXAS are also players in the region and have other unique personalities !

Even though the price of oil and gas are on the low side of the historic highs it is hard to avoid playing this exciting Williston Basin! We remain extremely bullish towards bexp,kog,axas & useg for the huge upside potential during the next 6-12 months!! Other higher priced oils that also concentrate in this region are wll, clr, eog & xto.

2. RODM a recent recommendation (aug 12th email alert at $2.05) has exploded to $5.22 on ever increasing financing "pipes", IPO's and other money raises. We remaining strongly Bullish towards continued appreciation of RODM near term!

As you recall --RODM booked deals valued at $400 million during the 2nd Q and earned .29 non-gap and .42 gap- We prefer the non-gap # in our calculations. The third Q is over in a few days and we calculate that RODM has completed or near completing over $517 million in raises. A small portion may have been placed by assisting firms. Even though we believe that the usual commission is around 6% we are using a 3% value for our calculations. We assign a .44/sh non-gap earning for the 3rd Q! The gap number includes warrants and we don't have a clue about that side of the business. It could add another .20! The company also has a $12 million NOL that will be used to offset taxes for the Q.

The fourth Q is still anticipated to be the strongest Q of the year with respect to funding so results could even surpass this 3rd Q rage!

Our overall calculations; loss of .15 for the 1st, gain of .29 for the 2nd, est. .44 gain for the 3rd and .40 for the 4th( assume 4th will be taxed).

This results in a .98/sh earnings non-gap for year ending Dec 31, 2009. If we assign a PE est. of 10X our resulting share price valuation equal $9.80!

As you can see, RODM has plenty of upside potential and these are conservative estimates!

We continue to rate RODM with our strongest BUY RATING!

WORTH A SHOT!

1.ALY ------------ OIL AND GAS EQUIPMENT SERVICES. WWW.ALCHENERGY.COM 52- WK RANGE .71- 13.18 CURRENT PRICE $4.13

2.EROC-----------EAGLE ROCK ENERGY PARTNERS. 52 WK RANGE 2.65-13.25 OIL AND GAS REFINING AND MARKETING--- WWW.EAGLEROCKENERGY.COM CURRENT PRICE $4.38

3. BRNC-------BRONCO DRILLING--- OIL AND GAS DRILLER-- WWW.BRONCODRILL.COM 52-WK RANGE 3.34-11.70 CURRENT PRICE $7.00

4. EK--------- EASTMAN KODAK---- WWW.KODAK.COM 52- WK RANGE 2.01- 15.68 CURRENT PRICE $4.93

ALL ARE WORTH A POSITION-- MOSTLY OUT OF FAVOR OPPORTUNITIES THAT WE ALWAYS FAVOR!

We have not been paid by any listed investment within this email alert. We may buy, sell and or hold at our discretion.

Hard-copy newsletter/yr $300/yr

super-fast-phone-service-- we call you before the email alert is released with recommendatons- - $950.00/yr

phone --801-272-4761


FOR INFORMATION: CALL 801 272 4761


mailing address:
saadvisory
4700 s holladay blvd
slc,utah 84117
S.A.Advisory
William Velmer
Job Title
phone:
949 922-9986

Click here to go to the Email Archive


Newsletter | Mailing List Rental | Phone Service | Subscription | Email Archive | Home
Copyright © 2010 S.A. Advisory